Monday, June 24, 2013

Newspoll 43-57

Today's Australian has the latest Newspoll. The headline two-party preferred (TPP) vote share estimate is one percentage-point improved for the Government compared with three weeks ago. Nonetheless, a TPP result of 43 per cent for Labor would be devastating at an election.

Let's start our look at today's Newspoll with the primary vote shares. Of note: the Greens and Other votes are heading in different directions. And those intending to vote for mainstream parties (Coalition or Labor) is in decline, suggesting a growing level of dissatisfaction with both major parties. While the media has focused on the sub-30 primary vote share for Labor in today's polls, Labor has had worse this term.

At 57 per cent, the trend two-party preferred vote for the Coalition may be peaking.

Turning to the attitudinal questions, both leaders appear to have plateaued at their current level of dissatisfaction.

And finally, the question on who would be the better PM: which is running as strongly as it ever has in Abbott's favour.

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