Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Weekly aggregation

Essential is acting a little strangely for a rolling poll. The last six weeks have seen Essential report the two-party preferred vote estimate for Labor as 46 - 46 - 46 - 45 - 46 - 44. When I break this down into independent fortnightly polls I get one series that reads 46 - 46 - 46 (a flat line). The other series reads 46 - 45 - 44 (a consistent decline). This week's aggregation is informed by the second series. (This anomaly makes week-to-week comparisons of the aggregated poll a little problematic).

Newspoll has moved one point in Labor's favour since the poll three weeks ago. The lines in the next chart plot a Henderson moving average.

Comparing pollsters using a localised regression we have ...

And the aggregation: Labor's recent decline may have found a floor. Also worth noting that the national seats model has the Greens winning Melbourne. I have left the axes unchanged for the Monte Carlo seats model, but this is becoming problematic.

I am expecting another Morgan poll to be published tomorrow.

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