Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Midweek update

Today's ReachTEL is consistent with Labor arresting its decline in the polls. However, at 47-53 in the Coalition's favour, the polls are still predicting a sizable Coalition win.

Also, something we have not done for some time is look at how the primary votes have been tracking since Kevin's restoration. For this exercise, I will start with a simple 30-day LOESS regression to plot the trend.

We can look at the primary vote trends from the individual pollsters to get a sense of how consistent or inconsistent the trend is across polling houses:

And we can pop the primary votes into a Bayesian model ... which among its constraints, seeks to ensure the four types of primary vote (Coalition, Labor, Greens and Other) sum to 100 per cent.

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