If the favourite wins in each case, we would have a new House of Representatives after the election as follows (giving the Coalition and Labor one each of the two coin flip seats):
| Coalition | Labor | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seat count | 89 | 59 | 2 |
Turning to the individual seats:
| State | Labor | Coalition | Other | current | favourite | change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyons | TAS | 47.3 | 47.3 | 5.5 | Labor | ? | ? |
| Kingsford Smith | NSW | 47.9 | 47.9 | 4.3 | Labor | ? | ? |
| Parramatta | NSW | 49.5 | 43.3 | 7.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Eden-Monaro | NSW | 42.9 | 51.7 | 5.4 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Lingiari | NT | 52.3 | 40.2 | 7.5 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Petrie | QLD | 54.8 | 42.1 | 3.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Hindmarsh | SA | 55.6 | 40.4 | 3.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Page | NSW | 56.7 | 38.2 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Brisbane | QLD | 38.4 | 56.9 | 4.7 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Moreton | QLD | 38.4 | 56.9 | 4.7 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Blair | QLD | 57.8 | 38.9 | 3.3 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Franklin | TAS | 59.4 | 33.8 | 6.8 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Barton | NSW | 60.2 | 34.2 | 5.6 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Lilley | QLD | 61.0 | 35.4 | 3.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Robertson | NSW | 26.3 | 62.2 | 11.5 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Brand | WA | 62.4 | 31.8 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Capricornia | QLD | 62.5 | 31.8 | 5.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| McEwen | VIC | 65.3 | 30.4 | 4.3 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Werriwa | NSW | 65.6 | 30.5 | 3.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Dobell | NSW | 25.3 | 67.1 | 7.7 | Other | Coalition | TRUE |
| La Trobe | VIC | 27.3 | 67.2 | 5.5 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Griffith | QLD | 67.3 | 27.4 | 5.3 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Indi | VIC | 4.1 | 68.1 | 27.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Flynn | QLD | 24.8 | 68.9 | 6.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Richmond | NSW | 69.0 | 23.9 | 7.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Greenway | NSW | 28.1 | 69.1 | 2.9 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Chisholm | VIC | 69.4 | 24.8 | 5.8 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Bonner | QLD | 26.2 | 69.5 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Solomon | NT | 25.1 | 69.8 | 5.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Hasluck | WA | 26.4 | 70.2 | 3.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Banks | NSW | 24.4 | 70.4 | 5.2 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Melbourne | VIC | 70.4 | 2.6 | 27.0 | Other | Labor | TRUE |
| McMahon | NSW | 70.4 | 26.5 | 3.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Adelaide | SA | 70.9 | 23.1 | 6.0 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Dawson | QLD | 22.9 | 71.3 | 5.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Forde | QLD | 21.9 | 73.1 | 5.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Bruce | VIC | 73.3 | 20.4 | 6.3 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Reid | NSW | 21.7 | 73.6 | 4.7 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Longman | QLD | 20.7 | 74.4 | 5.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Braddon | TAS | 20.7 | 74.6 | 4.7 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Rankin | QLD | 74.8 | 20.8 | 4.5 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Casey | VIC | 18.1 | 74.8 | 7.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Newcastle | NSW | 74.9 | 18.0 | 7.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Leichhardt | QLD | 18.1 | 75.6 | 6.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Bass | TAS | 18.3 | 76.2 | 5.5 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Herbert | QLD | 18.3 | 76.2 | 5.5 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Fisher | QLD | 14.3 | 76.8 | 8.9 | Other | Coalition | TRUE |
| Melbourne Ports | VIC | 76.9 | 16.4 | 6.8 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Fairfax | QLD | 6.6 | 77.1 | 16.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Swan | WA | 18.6 | 77.5 | 3.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Wakefield | SA | 77.6 | 16.5 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Bendigo | VIC | 78.4 | 15.0 | 6.6 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Throsby | NSW | 78.9 | 14.4 | 6.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Fowler | NSW | 79.4 | 16.9 | 3.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Chifley | NSW | 79.9 | 14.6 | 5.5 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Perth | WA | 80.0 | 13.3 | 6.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Macquarie | NSW | 14.7 | 80.2 | 5.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Corangamite | VIC | 12.3 | 80.3 | 7.5 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Deakin | VIC | 13.3 | 80.3 | 6.3 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Gilmore | NSW | 13.4 | 80.4 | 6.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Dunkley | VIC | 12.3 | 80.6 | 7.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Fremantle | WA | 80.7 | 13.4 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Canning | WA | 14.8 | 80.8 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Makin | SA | 81.2 | 14.9 | 4.0 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Denison | TAS | 13.9 | 4.9 | 81.2 | Other | Other | FALSE |
| Fadden | QLD | 10.0 | 81.4 | 8.7 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Bowman | QLD | 13.5 | 81.4 | 5.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Oxley | QLD | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Hinkler | QLD | 8.5 | 81.9 | 9.6 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Ryan | QLD | 10.1 | 82.2 | 7.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| McMillan | VIC | 11.6 | 82.4 | 6.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Bennelong | NSW | 13.7 | 82.4 | 3.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Lindsay | NSW | 13.7 | 82.4 | 3.9 | Labor | Coalition | TRUE |
| Stirling | WA | 10.8 | 82.5 | 6.7 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Jagajaga | VIC | 82.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Wright | QLD | 5.6 | 83.0 | 11.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Isaacs | VIC | 83.3 | 11.7 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Sturt | SA | 11.2 | 83.6 | 5.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Ballarat | VIC | 83.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Cowan | WA | 10.3 | 83.9 | 5.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Hunter | NSW | 83.9 | 10.9 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Batman | VIC | 83.9 | 5.7 | 10.4 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Sydney | NSW | 84.3 | 5.7 | 10.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Macarthur | NSW | 11.1 | 84.6 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Watson | NSW | 84.6 | 11.1 | 4.4 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Blaxland | NSW | 84.9 | 11.1 | 3.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Dickson | QLD | 9.8 | 85.0 | 5.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Charlton | NSW | 85.1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Shortland | NSW | 85.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Canberra | ACT | 85.3 | 8.8 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Cunningham | NSW | 85.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Aston | VIC | 8.7 | 85.4 | 5.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Kooyong | VIC | 6.6 | 85.5 | 7.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Kingston | SA | 85.5 | 9.8 | 4.7 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Lalor | VIC | 85.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Kennedy | QLD | 5.0 | 9.4 | 85.7 | Other | Other | FALSE |
| Berowra | NSW | 6.7 | 85.8 | 7.5 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Lyne | NSW | 8.8 | 86.1 | 5.2 | Other | Coalition | TRUE |
| Boothby | SA | 8.9 | 86.3 | 4.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Hume | NSW | 7.3 | 86.3 | 6.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Corio | VIC | 86.4 | 7.3 | 6.4 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Flinders | VIC | 6.7 | 86.5 | 6.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Cook | NSW | 6.7 | 86.5 | 6.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Wentworth | NSW | 5.1 | 86.7 | 8.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Maribyrnong | VIC | 86.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Higgins | VIC | 6.7 | 86.8 | 6.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Paterson | NSW | 8.0 | 86.9 | 5.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| McPherson | QLD | 6.8 | 86.9 | 6.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Grey | SA | 6.8 | 87.0 | 6.3 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Gippsland | VIC | 6.8 | 87.0 | 6.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Barker | SA | 6.8 | 87.1 | 6.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Calare | NSW | 7.3 | 87.1 | 5.6 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Curtin | WA | 4.2 | 87.2 | 8.6 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Bradfield | NSW | 5.9 | 87.2 | 6.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Grayndler | NSW | 87.2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Mackellar | NSW | 5.2 | 87.2 | 7.6 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| North Sydney | NSW | 5.9 | 87.2 | 6.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Goldstein | VIC | 6.8 | 87.3 | 5.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Scullin | VIC | 87.3 | 6.8 | 5.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Moore | WA | 6.8 | 87.3 | 5.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Holt | VIC | 87.5 | 7.4 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Hotham | VIC | 87.5 | 7.4 | 5.1 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Hughes | NSW | 8.1 | 87.5 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Forrest | WA | 6.6 | 87.7 | 5.7 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Wide Bay | QLD | 5.9 | 87.7 | 6.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Mallee | VIC | 6.8 | 87.7 | 5.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Warringah | NSW | 5.2 | 87.8 | 7.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Moncrieff | QLD | 6.9 | 87.9 | 5.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Calwell | VIC | 88.0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Gorton | VIC | 88.0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Fraser | ACT | 88.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| New England | NSW | 6.8 | 88.1 | 5.0 | Other | Coalition | TRUE |
| Murray | VIC | 6.8 | 88.1 | 5.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Gellibrand | VIC | 88.3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Menzies | VIC | 5.3 | 88.4 | 6.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Cowper | NSW | 7.5 | 88.6 | 3.9 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Mayo | SA | 5.3 | 88.7 | 6.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Mitchell | NSW | 6.9 | 88.7 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Parkes | NSW | 6.9 | 88.7 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Tangney | WA | 6.0 | 88.8 | 5.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Port Adelaide | SA | 89.1 | 6.0 | 4.9 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Riverina | NSW | 6.9 | 89.1 | 4.0 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Pearce | WA | 5.2 | 89.2 | 5.6 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Maranoa | QLD | 5.3 | 89.4 | 5.2 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Farrer | NSW | 6.0 | 89.5 | 4.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Wills | VIC | 89.9 | 3.5 | 6.6 | Labor | Labor | FALSE |
| Groom | QLD | 6.1 | 90.5 | 3.4 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Wannon | VIC | 4.4 | 91.5 | 4.1 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| O'Connor | WA | 3.3 | 93.0 | 3.7 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
| Durack | WA | 3.3 | 93.9 | 2.8 | Coalition | Coalition | FALSE |
If we apply the cube rule to these seat totals, it yields a notional TPP vote share for Labor of 46.6 per cent. This is a better result for the Coalition than most of the current opinion polls.
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