Monday, May 18, 2015

Second wave of post-Budget polling

Overnight two more polls were published:

  • In the Fairfax media, the Ipsos poll had the two party preferred result at 50/50. This is the best poll result for the Coalition since Newspoll of 4-6 April 2014 had the Coaltion on 51 per cent. The Ipsos poll was up four points for the Coalition on the April 2015 Ipsos poll.
  • In the Australian, Newspoll had the Coalition on 47 per cent, two-party preferred, which was down one percentage point on the previous Newspoll at the start of May.

Plugging these numbers into the Bayesian model yields:

The latest Ipsos poll is substantially adjusted in the Bayesian model.

Where there is remarkable agreement is in respect of the Prime Minister's recovery in the attitudinal polling.

In contrast, happiness with the Leader of the Opposition is largely unchanged.

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