Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Is flatline the new normal?

This fortnight's Morgan poll reversed the jump to the right we saw in the previous Morgan poll. The result was 46.5 to 53.5 in Labor's favour, with preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2013 election. This was a 2.5 percentage point movement in Labor's favour over the previous poll.

Without smoothing, it is pretty much a flat line. This week's aggregate is 47.6 per cent. Last week it was 47.7 per cent.

I am not seeing much movement since May this year. If we smooth the aggregation with a Henderson moving average, a flat-line since May is clearly evident.

The best hope for the Coalition comes from my anchored primary vote model. This model has the Coalition on 49.2 per cent (which might translate into a small Coalition win). But even this model has flat-lined.

This model assumes that the polling houses have done nothing to correct the Green over-estimate and the Coalition under-estimate from the last election. I would be surprised if the polling houses had not considered and corrected their collective under-performance on the 2013 primary vote estimates.

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