Monday, July 6, 2015

Poll update

Today we are blessed with two new polls:

  • Newspoll in the Australian (in its new incarnation combining automated phone and internet polling) had the Coalition on 48 per cent. [I have marked this series as Newspoll2 in the charts].
  • Ipsos in the Fairfax media had the Coalition on 47 per cent; which is unchanged from the previous Ipsos poll.

The poll aggregate continues its flatline to slight decline for the Coalition. 

At this point, it is worth noting that I assume that collectively the polling houses are not biased. I treat the systemic bias across all polling houses as summing to zero.

Newspoll 2.0 is a completely different beast to its predecessor, with a different methodology and likely a different systemic bias. Consequently, I have added a new house to the polling houses. It will take a few polling cycles for this to settle down. Only after a few cycles will we have a good reading on the relative bias of the new Newspoll. In the interim, the aggregate will move a little as a consequence of adding a new polling house.

Looking at the primary votes: The Greens continue to grow. Labor and the Coalition are in decline. [Please note, with the following charts, the aggregation is done on a weekly basis, and graphed for the first day in the week. This will be a little out of step with the poll results, which are plotted according to the middle day of their collection period.]

Both leaders continue to sink in the attitudinal polling.

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