Sunday, February 14, 2016

Off the boil

There have been three key polls since the start of February. All suggest the public has cooled on Turnbull government; although there is some disagreement on the extent of that cooling.

  • The Morgan poll of 30 January to 7 February had the government on 52.5; down from 56 in early December last year (using preference distributions from the last election).
  • The ReachTEL poll of 11 February has the government on 54; down from 55 in the third week of January (and late November last year).
  • The Ipsos poll of 11 to 13 February had the government on 52; down from 56 in mid November last year.

Collectively, this is showing up as a post-Christmas decline in Coalition two-party preferred (TPP) voting intention in my aggregation models.

Across all the models I run, the results are.


Turning to the primary votes:

Like Kevin Bonham, I have some doubts about the high end Green vote results from some polling houses.

On the attitudinal front, looking at how "happy" the punters are with the performance of the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, we can see some changes.

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