Monday, February 22, 2016

Newspoll 50/50

This morning's Newspoll came in at 50/50. Folding these numbers into the polling aggregation model we get an estimated two-party preferred vote share of 52.6 to 47.4 in the Coalition's favour. It is clear that Turnbull enjoyed a significantly longer honeymoon that Abbott. It will also be interesting to see where the current movement settles.



On betting markets, we have seen small reductions in the probability estimate for a Coalition election win from Betfair and Luxbet.

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Betfair 85.80 85.10 83.45 83.58 85.57 85.10 85.10 82.22
CrownBet 85.41 85.41 85.41 85.41 85.41 84.27 84.27 84.27
Ladbrokes 81.30 83.08 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03
Luxbet 86.53 88.20 87.51 81.17 86.42 86.42 86.42 83.08
Sportsbet 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51
TABtouch 84.27 84.27 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83
William Hill 85.41 85.41 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15





No comments:

Post a Comment