Sunday, April 17, 2016

Ipsos also at 50-50

On Friday I reported that ReachTEL was at 50-50; and today it's the Fairfax-Ipsos poll which is at 50-50. The best Fairfax reporting on this poll can be found in the Fin Review.

So, it is time to update the aggregation. Today's Ipsos poll shifts the estimated national two-party-preferred vote share for the Coalition to 50.2 per cent.

As usual, please note that these models embody a number of assumptions and methodological issues which need to be considered when interpreting the model output. For more information look here.

Turning to the primary vote data.

It is worth noting that the 2013 election saw an unusually low preference flow from other parties to the Coalition. If preference flows at the next election are more like the 2010 election, then the pollsters still have the Coalition well ahead in TPP terms.

Interestingly, on the attitudinal polling, there is a change from the consistent pollster treatment of then Prime Minister Abbott. Ipsos is more benign to Turnbull on the attitudinal polling in comparison with the other pollsters.

Which affects the aggregation of the attitudinal polling.

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