Monday, April 18, 2016

Newspoll 49-51

This is the second in a row from the new Newspoll series (published in the Australian) to have Labor ahead on 51 to the Coalition's 49 per cent of the two-party preferred vote share. However, this has not changed the aggregation from last night, primarily as the new Newspoll tracks more to Labor than the other polls.

My base model's estimate of the national two party preferred vote share remains at 50.2 per cent in the Coalition's favour.

As always, output from these models need to be considered in light of the assumptions within each model. You can find out more here.


  1. I think you've missed the latest Morgan poll.

    Thanks for this great site... I have a great love for the graphs (charts?) you create here!

    I was wondering how difficult it would be for you to show the relative house effect for each pollster for each of the primary votes?

    Also I would be interested to see the Relative House Effect for just the period following Turnbull becoming PM. It seems like some of them have behaved quite differently since this point.

  2. Have tweeted the update ...

  3. I do house effects by primary vote - the charts will be on the google drive in the charts directory - - house effects post Turnbull are more problematic analytically.