Monday, April 4, 2016

Updated Aggregation

Today's Morgan poll (51.5 to 48.5 in the Coalition's favour, when allocating preferences according to the last election), allows me to update the poll aggregation. The end result - 51.9 per cent for the Coalition - is where I had it two weeks ago.

Caveats and notes on the poll aggregation process can be found here.

Update (Tuesday 5 April @ 7.15am)

With last night's Newspoll (49-51 in Labor's favour), I can rerun the aggregation, yielding an estimated two-party preferred vote share for the Coalition of 51.4 per cent.

Antony Green has some good observations on the latest Newspoll.

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