Interesting Odds

Odds from Crownbet ...

In the market for a hung parliament, the probability of a hung parliament is 26.3 per cent in the yes-no market.

In the market for a hung parliament by seat numbers a hung parliament is the favourite, with a probability of 20.9 per cent. How does the same dollar odds result in a different probability? It's all to do with the size of the bookmaker's over-round.

In the market for seat numbers, the probability of a Coalition majority in the House of Representatives is 51.9 per cent. The probability of a Labor majority is 27.2 per cent.

Overall, the probability of Labor forming government (whether that is a majority or minority government) is 28.0 per cent. The probability of the Coalition forming government is 72 per cent.

The process for calculating probabilities from odds can be found here.