Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Interesting Odds

Odds from Crownbet ...

In the market for a hung parliament, the probability of a hung parliament is 26.3 per cent in the yes-no market.

In the market for a hung parliament by seat numbers a hung parliament is the favourite, with a probability of 20.9 per cent. How does the same dollar odds result in a different probability? It's all to do with the size of the bookmaker's over-round.

In the market for seat numbers, the probability of a Coalition majority in the House of Representatives is 51.9 per cent. The probability of a Labor majority is 27.2 per cent.

Overall, the probability of Labor forming government (whether that is a majority or minority government) is 28.0 per cent. The probability of the Coalition forming government is 72 per cent.

The process for calculating probabilities from odds can be found here.

No comments:

Post a Comment