Monday, May 9, 2016

Newspoll 49-51; Ipsos 51-49

Every child won a prize in today's polls. Newspoll has its latest estimate of the national two-party preferred vote share at 49-51 in Labor's favour. Ipsos has it at 51-49 in the Coalition's favour.

My standard aggregation, which assumes that collectively the individual pollster biases cancel each other out, splits the difference at 50-50.

If I anchor the the aggregation to the polling outcome at the last election, I have the Coalition ahead on 50.7 to Labor on 49.3.

A more detailed explanation of the data aggregation process can be found on this page

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