Monday, September 10, 2018

Fourth Morrison poll - Second Newspoll

Newspoll is out at the start of another parliamentary sitting fortnight. It's the same headline message as the previous Newspoll. Labor is on 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, well ahead of the Coalition on 44 per cent. With these numbers, there is not a lot of subtlety: Labor would win with a landslide election result if an election was held at the moment.

I would not read too much into the slight downwards slant of the Morrison period to the right of the chart after the discontinuity. The first day of this period has three polls informing its position, the last day has just one poll. The slant may disappear as more polls come in.

The moving average models are coming around. They will over-shoot the Bayesian model before coming into line. They are not designed for the discontinuity we have seen.

Turning to the primary votes aggregation, we see a similar picture.

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