Monday, September 17, 2018

Ipsos 47 to 53 in Labor's favour

The Ipsos monthly poll has been released. It estimates Labor would receive 53 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote if an election was held now. Popping these latest numbers into the aggregation, we get an aggregate estimate of 54.2 to 45.8 per cent in Labor's favour.

Turning to the moving averages, which do not cope well with disruption events, we can see the short-run averages are coming in close to the Bayesian model. The longer-run averages will need more time to come into line.

The Ipsos primary vote numbers were a little unusual, with 35 per cent of the primary vote going outside of the Coalition and Labor parties. Also unusual was Labor's low primary vote share in this poll.

Extrapolating a TPP from the primary vote aggregations yields the following.

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