Friday, January 28, 2022

Individual seat betting markets

I have started collecting sportbet's daily odds for the 151 seats in the House of Representatives.

In terms of the following plots (one for each seat), I have ignored the odds in a seat in excess of $25. These larger-valued odds can be problematic for two related reasons. First, typically the bookmaker's overround for each seat is sizeable. Second, the larger valued odds can over estimate the win probability because of a phenomenon known as the long-shot bias

While there is not much to see from my first two days of data collection (yesterday and today), these charts should provide a good indication of who the broader public thinks will win each seat, and how that opinion changes over time.

The seats that punters think are a close contest are: Braddon (TAS), Flinders (VIC), Casey (VIC), Bass (TAS), Deakin (VIC), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (QLD), Boothby (SA), Longman (QLD), Reid (NSW), La Trobe (VIC), Lindsay (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Hunter (NSW), Dobell (NSW), Higgins (VIC), Goldstein (VIC), Hasluck (WA), and Wentworth (NSW)

The seats where the punters think the Greens have a chance are: Melbourne (VIC), Higgins (VIC), Griffith (QLD), Macnamara (VIC), Cooper (VIC), Brisbane (QLD), Wills (VIC), and Kooyong (VIC)

The seats where other parties and independents have a chance, according to the punters, are: Kennedy (QLD), Clark (TAS), Mayo (SA), Warringah (NSW), Indi (VIC), Flinders (VIC), Goldstein (VIC), Wentworth (NSW), North Sydney (NSW), Kooyong (VIC), Hughes (NSW), Hume (NSW), Nicholls (VIC), and Mackellar (NSW).

1 comment:

  1. Thank you for collecting these, very useful service. Would you consider putting a heading in text above each one? Then we could Control+F to find key seats.