Tuesday, January 4, 2022


I have moved to PyMC as my tool of choice for solving Bayesian hierarchical models. I use these models to aggregate opinion polling. 

Resolve Strategic, a new entrant in publicly available opinion polling, have a very different take on the electorate to the other pollsters. As can be seen from the pollster bias charts, RS sees a world where Labor's primary vote has collapsed, and the minor parties are resurgent. As a result, its polls suggest a close election, with the Coalition a nose in front. The other three pollsters have Labor in front, with Morgan and Newspoll putting Labor a long way in front.

The latest aggregations follow ...


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