Monday, January 31, 2022

Newspoll 56-44 in Labor's favour

Today's Newspoll has the Coalition with 44 per cent and Labor with 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. This is about as bad as it gets for the Coalition. Today's poll suggests the Coalition faces a landslide loss at the 2022 election (most likely to be in May 2022). 

This is not the first published poll since the 2019 election to have the government at or below 45 per cent. But it is the first poll with this result when the two-party preferred tally is calculated using preference flows at the last election.

The Bayesian aggregation tells much the same story.

The attitudinal polling suggests a slide in the Prime Minister's standing.

Of interest in the primary votes is the sizable vote for the minor, non-duopoly parties.

I will report the betting market response in tomorrow's post. But there has already been some movement. Right now Labor is on \$1.35 and the Coalition is on \$3.00.

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