## Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Yesterday's Morgan poll was unchanged on the previous Morgan poll: 55-45 to the Coalition with preferences flowing as they did at the previous election. The aggregation now stands at 54.8 for the Coalition to 45.2 for Labor.

Those of you with a keen eye will have noticed a slight change to the anchored models. Previously they were coded for three discontinuities. This has now been generalised in the code to two or more discontinuities. Also, I have removed the discontinuity I was applying for Shorten's promotion to the Leader of the Opposition.

The betting market has moved a touch in Malcolm Turnbull's direction.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-01 Betfair 1.15 6.89 85.696517
2015-12-01 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473