Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Updates

Yesterday's Morgan poll was unchanged on the previous Morgan poll: 55-45 to the Coalition with preferences flowing as they did at the previous election. The aggregation now stands at 54.8 for the Coalition to 45.2 for Labor.



Those of you with a keen eye will have noticed a slight change to the anchored models. Previously they were coded for three discontinuities. This has now been generalised in the code to two or more discontinuities. Also, I have removed the discontinuity I was applying for Shorten's promotion to the Leader of the Opposition. 

The betting market has moved a touch in Malcolm Turnbull's direction.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-01 Betfair 1.15 6.89 85.696517
2015-12-01 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473
2015-12-01 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-01 Luxbet 1.07 7.50 87.514586
2015-12-01 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-01 TABtouch 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2015-12-01 William Hill 1.08 7.50 87.412587





No comments:

Post a Comment