Those of you with a keen eye will have noticed a slight change to the anchored models. Previously they were coded for three discontinuities. This has now been generalised in the code to two or more discontinuities. Also, I have removed the discontinuity I was applying for Shorten's promotion to the Leader of the Opposition.
The betting market has moved a touch in Malcolm Turnbull's direction.
| House | Coalition Odds ($) | Labor Odds ($) | Coalition Win Probability (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-12-01 | Betfair | 1.15 | 6.89 | 85.696517 |
| 2015-12-01 | CrownBet | 1.13 | 6.00 | 84.151473 |
| 2015-12-01 | Ladbrokes | 1.15 | 5.00 | 81.300813 |
| 2015-12-01 | Luxbet | 1.07 | 7.50 | 87.514586 |
| 2015-12-01 | Sportsbet | 1.10 | 6.00 | 84.507042 |
| 2015-12-01 | TABtouch | 1.09 | 7.00 | 86.526576 |
| 2015-12-01 | William Hill | 1.08 | 7.50 | 87.412587 |
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