Newspoll: two good polls in a row for the government

This is the second Newspoll in a row where the Government's fortunes have improved.

For the data visualiser, today's data is difficult. Compared with the Henderson moving average, the LOESS regression approach to identifying an underlying trend is more responsive to data points at the end of a series. This means LOESS picks trend changes earlier than Henderson; but LOESS also has more false positives in identifying turning points in the trend (with the hindsight perspective of subsequent data points).

To be fair, I will give you both sets today. You can decide whether the Government's revival is at hand.

There is less disagreement in the trends with the satisfaction polling.

Newspoll

In today's Australian we have the latest Newspoll. That means it is time for my monthly look at Newspoll. Fundamentally, not much has changed since my last look in June. Let's start with the primary vote shares.

The two party preferred (TPP) poll, which is probably the most important for predicting an election outcome, given Australia's compulsory preferential system of voting.

Job satisfaction with the Prime Minister (PM) and the Opposition Leader (OL) ...

Who would make the better prime minister ...

Newspoll

I did not blog on the previous Newspoll as little had changed in the headline narrative. Today's poll published in the Australian is pretty much more of the same.

Let's start with the primary vote trends (lines) and individual poll results (points) ...

The two-party preferred results are trending back to the Government, but still indicating a significant defeat for the Government if a poll was held last weekend ... but we are still some 14 months from the next election ...

Satisfaction with the way the Prime Minister is doing her job ...

Satisfaction with the way the Opposition Leader is doing his job ...

Net satisfaction ... could the electorate be asking: Is there a third option?

And the preferred Prime Minister ...

Net better Prime Minister ... trending back towards the PM ...

Nielsen

A couple of charts from today's Nielsen poll as reported in the Fairfax press.

Newspoll

Today's Australian has the latest Newspoll results. Perhaps we are seeing a post budget bounce.

We will start with the primary vote.

The two-party preferred prediction.

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as Prime Minister?

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as Opposition Leader?

Who do you think will make the better PM?

Newspoll 45-55

Post budget bounce? Post budget bounces are a fairly rare beast.

Prime Minister (PM) and Opposition Leader (OL) satisfaction results.

Better Prime Minister.

Newspoll 41-59 for the Coalition

Newspoll

Not a lot new in today's Newspoll.
 

This next chart may need a little explanation. Above the zero line Ms Gillard is seen as the better Prime Minister. Below the zero line and it's Mr Abbott.

Nielsen 43-57

The latest Nielsen poll has the same headline result as last week's Newspoll for the Federal Labor. Pundits agree that this is likely to be a continuation of the post Queensland election effect.