Newspoll

In today's Australian we have the latest Newspoll. That means it is time for my monthly look at Newspoll. Fundamentally, not much has changed since my last look in June. Let's start with the primary vote shares.

The two party preferred (TPP) poll, which is probably the most important for predicting an election outcome, given Australia's compulsory preferential system of voting.

Job satisfaction with the Prime Minister (PM) and the Opposition Leader (OL) ...

Who would make the better prime minister ...

Newspoll

I did not blog on the previous Newspoll as little had changed in the headline narrative. Today's poll published in the Australian is pretty much more of the same.

Let's start with the primary vote trends (lines) and individual poll results (points) ...

The two-party preferred results are trending back to the Government, but still indicating a significant defeat for the Government if a poll was held last weekend ... but we are still some 14 months from the next election ...

Satisfaction with the way the Prime Minister is doing her job ...

Satisfaction with the way the Opposition Leader is doing his job ...

Net satisfaction ... could the electorate be asking: Is there a third option?

And the preferred Prime Minister ...

Net better Prime Minister ... trending back towards the PM ...

Nielsen

A couple of charts from today's Nielsen poll as reported in the Fairfax press.

Newspoll

Today's Australian has the latest Newspoll results. Perhaps we are seeing a post budget bounce.

We will start with the primary vote.

The two-party preferred prediction.

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as Prime Minister?

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as Opposition Leader?

Who do you think will make the better PM?

Newspoll 45-55

Post budget bounce? Post budget bounces are a fairly rare beast.

Prime Minister (PM) and Opposition Leader (OL) satisfaction results.

Better Prime Minister.

Newspoll 41-59 for the Coalition

Newspoll

Not a lot new in today's Newspoll.
 

This next chart may need a little explanation. Above the zero line Ms Gillard is seen as the better Prime Minister. Below the zero line and it's Mr Abbott.

Nielsen 43-57

The latest Nielsen poll has the same headline result as last week's Newspoll for the Federal Labor. Pundits agree that this is likely to be a continuation of the post Queensland election effect.

Newspoll

The latest Newspoll sees big movement in voting intention but little or no movement in the attitudinal responses. The headline result was 43-57 two-party preferred voting intention in favour of the Coalition. Where the attitudinals have moved, it is in the opposite direction to voting intention. Go figure.

I suspect the six-month loess trend is overly influenced by the latest data point. The 13-term Henderson moving average is less affected. It will be interesting to see whether this latest data point is random noise or a turning point. 

Newspoll 47-53