Saturday morning update

This morning's polls:

• Morgan 45.5 to 54.5 in the Coalition's favour
• Newspoll 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour
• Nielsen 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour

Which gives an aggregation:

At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results]. 

If we limit our analysis to Newspoll and Nielsen.

The latest Newspoll

The latest Nielsen

My prediction? Yesterday I thought it might be in the high 50s for the number of seats won by Labor. Today, with this latest suite of polls, I suspect the low 50s for Labor is more likely. But the high 40s cannot be ruled out.

Friday morning update

Two new polls at 47-53: Galaxy and ReachTEL.

Betting market update

This morning's 7.30am run revealed a swag of safe Coalition seats where Centrebet is not offering odds at the moment (bottom 13 rows). The results follow.

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Brand	WA	48.0	48.0	3.9	Labor	?	?
Lingiari	NT	44.4	48.1	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Blair	QLD	49.0	46.5	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lyons	TAS	42.8	51.7	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Kingsford Smith	NSW	43.4	52.3	4.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Hindmarsh	SA	52.5	43.5	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	52.8	41.5	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	43.4	52.9	3.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Page	NSW	53.1	41.8	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Indi	VIC	3.3	53.6	43.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	55.4	40.3	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	55.6	40.5	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	56.4	38.0	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	38.0	58.3	3.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Franklin	TAS	59.4	33.8	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bendigo	VIC	62.3	31.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	62.8	2.6	34.6	Other	Labor	TRUE
McMahon	NSW	64.2	32.7	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	30.3	65.0	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	30.4	65.3	4.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Richmond	NSW	66.1	26.8	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Parramatta	NSW	27.3	67.1	5.6	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Brisbane	QLD	27.5	67.8	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Rankin	QLD	69.4	26.1	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	70.3	24.4	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flynn	QLD	22.8	70.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	70.9	22.8	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	21.9	73.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
La Trobe	VIC	20.5	74.0	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Wakefield	SA	74.2	20.6	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Adelaide	SA	75.3	19.4	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	75.7	21.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Greenway	NSW	21.1	75.8	3.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Solomon	NT	18.3	76.5	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	17.5	76.6	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	15.6	76.7	7.7	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	5.1	78.3	16.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forde	QLD	16.7	78.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	12.2	79.0	8.8	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Swan	WA	16.9	79.2	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	11.2	79.3	9.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	80.0	13.3	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Longman	QLD	14.7	80.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Reid	NSW	14.8	80.5	4.8	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hasluck	WA	15.0	81.7	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dunkley	VIC	10.8	82.1	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	82.2	12.6	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	12.6	82.3	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Braddon	TAS	12.6	82.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Leichhardt	QLD	10.9	82.8	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	6.5	83.1	10.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Herbert	QLD	11.8	83.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Casey	VIC	9.6	83.3	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	83.3	12.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fadden	QLD	7.7	83.5	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.9	11.0	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gilmore	NSW	9.6	84.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	10.6	5.0	84.4	Other	Other	FALSE
Deakin	VIC	9.2	84.5	6.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Stirling	WA	8.6	84.7	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Banks	NSW	11.1	84.7	4.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Corangamite	VIC	9.2	84.8	6.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bowman	QLD	9.2	84.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bass	TAS	9.9	85.4	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Canning	WA	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	86.0	9.3	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	8.0	86.0	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Canberra	ACT	86.1	8.0	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	8.8	86.1	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	9.4	86.7	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	8.9	86.8	4.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sturt	SA	8.0	86.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Boothby	SA	8.1	87.1	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	87.8	2.6	9.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	88.1	7.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	4.1	5.1	90.8	Other	Other	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	3.3	93.9	2.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
New England	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Parkes	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wentworth	NSW	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Groom	QLD	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Murray	VIC	NA	0.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

The summary results (on the favourite wins basis):

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	94.5	53.5	2

Cathy McGowan's chances have improved materially in the seat of Indi. Adam Bandt seems to be doing better in the seat of Melbourne. Clive Palmer's chances look unchanged in Fairfax. Andrew Wilkie looks safe in Denison and Bob Katter looks safe in Kennedy.

Wednesday: ReachTEL 48-52

Today's ReachTEL has the Coalition on 52 per cent (down one point from the previous ReachTEL) and Labor on 48 (up one). In terms of the primary vote: Palmer United is on 4.4 per cent nationally (and one guesses, much higher in Queensland).

ReachTEL, alone among pollsters, has Labor on the same TPP as it did when Rudd was initially restored in late June. It will be interesting to see if the other pollsters turn in a late flow to Labor

Moving to the Bayesian aggregation, and we are at one of those turning points where a single data point can significantly affect the aggregation. Will await confirmation from the other polling houses this week.

Betting market update

In past 24 hours Centrebet's individual seat market has moved two more seats in the Coalition's favour (on a favourite wins basis).

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	93.5	54.5	2

The individual seat probabilities follow:

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Brand	WA	48.0	48.0	3.9	Labor	?	?
Lingiari	NT	44.4	48.1	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Petrie	QLD	50.0	46.2	3.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blair	QLD	50.9	44.6	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	44.9	51.3	3.8	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Lyons	TAS	42.8	51.7	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Kingsford Smith	NSW	43.4	52.3	4.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Hindmarsh	SA	52.5	43.5	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	52.8	41.5	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Page	NSW	53.1	41.8	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	55.4	40.3	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	57.4	38.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	59.4	33.8	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	32.1	63.1	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMahon	NSW	64.2	32.7	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bendigo	VIC	64.2	29.9	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	30.3	65.0	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	30.4	65.3	4.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Indi	VIC	4.0	65.3	30.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	66.1	26.8	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Parramatta	NSW	27.3	67.1	5.6	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Rankin	QLD	70.9	24.6	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	72.1	21.6	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	72.8	21.9	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	73.0	2.6	24.5	Other	Labor	TRUE
Bonner	QLD	21.9	73.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
La Trobe	VIC	20.5	74.0	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Wakefield	SA	74.2	20.6	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Adelaide	SA	75.3	19.4	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	16.5	75.8	7.7	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Greenway	NSW	21.1	75.8	3.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Solomon	NT	18.3	76.5	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	17.5	76.6	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	12.0	77.9	10.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fairfax	QLD	5.1	78.3	16.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forde	QLD	16.7	78.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Longman	QLD	16.7	78.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	78.7	18.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	12.2	79.0	8.8	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Swan	WA	16.9	79.2	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	80.0	13.3	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Reid	NSW	14.8	80.5	4.8	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Braddon	TAS	14.8	80.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hasluck	WA	15.0	81.7	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Casey	VIC	10.8	82.1	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dunkley	VIC	10.8	82.1	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	82.2	12.6	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	12.6	82.3	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Leichhardt	QLD	10.9	82.8	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	6.5	83.1	10.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Herbert	QLD	11.8	83.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	83.3	12.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bass	TAS	11.8	83.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fadden	QLD	7.7	83.5	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.9	11.0	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	10.6	5.0	84.4	Other	Other	FALSE
Deakin	VIC	9.2	84.5	6.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Stirling	WA	8.6	84.7	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Banks	NSW	11.1	84.7	4.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Corangamite	VIC	9.2	84.8	6.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bowman	QLD	9.2	84.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Canning	WA	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gilmore	NSW	8.0	85.8	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	86.0	9.3	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	8.0	86.0	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Canberra	ACT	86.1	8.0	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	8.8	86.1	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	9.4	86.7	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	8.9	86.8	4.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sturt	SA	8.0	86.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Boothby	SA	8.1	87.1	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	87.8	2.6	9.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	88.1	7.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
New England	NSW	4.2	88.2	7.5	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	4.1	5.1	90.8	Other	Other	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	3.3	93.9	2.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

If I add probabilities in a similar manner to yesterday, I get

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	96	52	2

Monday evening update

Essential has released its latest poll data (recasting the four previous rolling fortnights as weekly data). While the pathway differs a little, the endpoint is in the middle of the pack.

Turning to the betting market: in aggregate, today's result (on a favourite-wins basis) is unchanged on Saturday's update.

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	91	57	2

The individual seat probabilities follow (expressed as a percent). Of note: Cathy McGowan (Independent) seems to be improving her odds in Indi.

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Lingiari	NT	46.9	45.6	7.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brand	WA	46.1	49.9	4.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Kingsford Smith	NSW	50.5	45.3	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lyons	TAS	42.8	51.7	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Lilley	QLD	52.6	43.6	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hindmarsh	SA	53.8	42.3	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blair	QLD	54.2	42.6	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	54.8	42.1	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	56.3	37.9	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Page	NSW	56.7	38.2	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	57.1	38.5	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	57.4	38.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	59.4	33.8	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	34.5	60.8	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parramatta	NSW	31.8	62.6	5.6	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Moreton	QLD	32.1	63.1	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
McMahon	NSW	64.2	32.7	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bendigo	VIC	64.2	29.9	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	30.4	65.3	4.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Indi	VIC	4.0	65.3	30.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	66.1	26.8	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	72.1	21.6	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	72.8	21.9	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	73.0	2.6	24.5	Other	Labor	TRUE
Rankin	QLD	73.5	22.0	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	22.1	73.6	4.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
La Trobe	VIC	20.5	74.0	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Hasluck	WA	22.3	74.4	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	16.5	75.8	7.7	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Greenway	NSW	21.1	75.8	3.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Solomon	NT	18.3	76.5	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wakefield	SA	76.6	17.5	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	17.5	76.6	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Adelaide	SA	77.4	16.5	6.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	77.8	15.6	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	12.0	77.9	10.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Forde	QLD	16.7	78.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Longman	QLD	16.7	78.3	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	78.7	18.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	12.2	79.0	8.8	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Leichhardt	QLD	14.5	79.2	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Swan	WA	16.9	79.2	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	5.1	80.4	14.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Reid	NSW	14.8	80.5	4.8	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Braddon	TAS	14.8	80.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Casey	VIC	10.8	82.1	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dunkley	VIC	10.8	82.1	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Herbert	QLD	12.7	82.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	82.2	12.6	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	12.6	82.3	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	6.5	83.1	10.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	83.3	12.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bass	TAS	11.8	83.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Fadden	QLD	7.7	83.5	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.9	11.0	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	10.6	5.0	84.4	Other	Other	FALSE
Deakin	VIC	9.2	84.5	6.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Stirling	WA	8.6	84.7	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Banks	NSW	11.1	84.7	4.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Corangamite	VIC	9.2	84.8	6.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bowman	QLD	9.3	85.6	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Canning	WA	9.9	85.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gilmore	NSW	8.0	85.8	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	86.0	9.3	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	8.0	86.0	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Canberra	ACT	86.1	8.0	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	8.8	86.1	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	9.4	86.7	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	8.9	86.8	4.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sturt	SA	8.0	86.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Boothby	SA	8.1	87.1	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	87.8	2.6	9.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	88.1	7.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
New England	NSW	4.2	88.2	7.5	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	89.4	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	4.1	5.1	90.8	Other	Other	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	3.3	93.9	2.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

If, rather than count favourites, we add probabilities to see the likely outcome (and make the odd adjustment), we get the following outcome:

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	95	53	2

And (for transparency) my adjusted calculations for adding probabilities (again expressed as percentages) follow:

	Labor	Coalition	Other
Lingiari	50.7	49.3	0.0
Brand	48.0	52.0	0.0
Kingsford Smith	52.7	47.3	0.0
Lyons	45.3	54.7	0.0
Lilley	54.7	45.3	0.0
Hindmarsh	56.0	44.0	0.0
Blair	56.0	44.0	0.0
Petrie	56.6	43.4	0.0
Capricornia	59.8	40.2	0.0
Page	59.7	40.3	0.0
McEwen	59.7	40.3	0.0
Werriwa	59.7	40.3	0.0
Franklin	63.7	36.3	0.0
Barton	63.8	36.2	0.0
Brisbane	36.2	63.8	0.0
Parramatta	33.7	66.3	0.0
Moreton	33.7	66.3	0.0
McMahon	66.3	33.7	0.0
Bendigo	68.2	31.8	0.0
Eden-Monaro	31.8	68.2	0.0
Indi	0.0	68.0	32.0
Richmond	71.2	28.8	0.0
Flynn	26.5	73.5	0.0
Chisholm	73.7	26.3	0.0
Bruce	76.9	23.1	0.0
Griffith	76.9	23.1	0.0
Melbourne	74.9	0.0	25.1
Rankin	77.0	23.0	0.0
Bonner	23.1	76.9	0.0
La Trobe	21.7	78.3	0.0
Hasluck	23.1	76.9	0.0
Newcastle	80.6	19.4	0.0
Dobell	0.0	100.0	0.0
Greenway	0.0	100.0	0.0
Solomon	0.0	100.0	0.0
Wakefield	100.0	0.0	0.0
Dawson	0.0	100.0	0.0
Melbourne Ports	100.0	0.0	0.0
Adelaide	100.0	0.0	0.0
Perth	100.0	0.0	0.0
Robertson	0.0	100.0	0.0
Forde	0.0	100.0	0.0
Longman	0.0	100.0	0.0
Oxley	100.0	0.0	0.0
Throsby	100.0	0.0	0.0
Fisher	0.0	100.0	0.0
Leichhardt	0.0	100.0	0.0
Swan	0.0	100.0	0.0
Fowler	100.0	0.0	0.0
Chifley	100.0	0.0	0.0
Fairfax	0.0	100.0	0.0
Reid	0.0	100.0	0.0
Braddon	0.0	100.0	0.0
Fremantle	100.0	0.0	0.0
Makin	100.0	0.0	0.0
Casey	0.0	100.0	0.0
Dunkley	0.0	100.0	0.0
Ryan	0.0	100.0	0.0
Herbert	0.0	100.0	0.0
Hunter	100.0	0.0	0.0
Macquarie	0.0	100.0	0.0
Jagajaga	100.0	0.0	0.0
Wright	0.0	100.0	0.0
Hinkler	0.0	100.0	0.0
Blaxland	100.0	0.0	0.0
Bass	0.0	100.0	0.0
Fadden	0.0	100.0	0.0
Ballarat	100.0	0.0	0.0
Isaacs	100.0	0.0	0.0
Batman	100.0	0.0	0.0
Sydney	100.0	0.0	0.0
Denison	0.0	0.0	100.0
Deakin	0.0	100.0	0.0
Watson	100.0	0.0	0.0
Stirling	0.0	100.0	0.0
Banks	0.0	100.0	0.0
Corangamite	0.0	100.0	0.0
Shortland	100.0	0.0	0.0
Cunningham	100.0	0.0	0.0
Aston	0.0	100.0	0.0
Kooyong	0.0	100.0	0.0
Bowman	0.0	100.0	0.0
Lalor	100.0	0.0	0.0
Bennelong	0.0	100.0	0.0
Canning	0.0	100.0	0.0
Gilmore	0.0	100.0	0.0
Berowra	0.0	100.0	0.0
Kingston	100.0	0.0	0.0
McMillan	0.0	100.0	0.0
Lyne	0.0	100.0	0.0
Canberra	100.0	0.0	0.0
Dickson	0.0	100.0	0.0
Hume	0.0	100.0	0.0
Corio	100.0	0.0	0.0
Flinders	0.0	100.0	0.0
Cook	0.0	100.0	0.0
Lindsay	0.0	100.0	0.0
Wentworth	0.0	100.0	0.0
Maribyrnong	100.0	0.0	0.0
Cowan	0.0	100.0	0.0
Sturt	0.0	100.0	0.0
Higgins	0.0	100.0	0.0
Paterson	0.0	100.0	0.0
McPherson	0.0	100.0	0.0
Grey	0.0	100.0	0.0
Gippsland	0.0	100.0	0.0
Barker	0.0	100.0	0.0
Calare	0.0	100.0	0.0
Boothby	0.0	100.0	0.0
Bradfield	0.0	100.0	0.0
Grayndler	100.0	0.0	0.0
Mackellar	0.0	100.0	0.0
North Sydney	0.0	100.0	0.0
Goldstein	0.0	100.0	0.0
Scullin	100.0	0.0	0.0
Moore	0.0	100.0	0.0
Holt	100.0	0.0	0.0
Hotham	100.0	0.0	0.0
Hughes	0.0	100.0	0.0
Macarthur	0.0	100.0	0.0
Forrest	0.0	100.0	0.0
Wide Bay	0.0	100.0	0.0
Mallee	0.0	100.0	0.0
Warringah	0.0	100.0	0.0
Charlton	100.0	0.0	0.0
Moncrieff	0.0	100.0	0.0
Calwell	100.0	0.0	0.0
Gorton	100.0	0.0	0.0
Fraser	100.0	0.0	0.0
Curtin	0.0	100.0	0.0
Murray	0.0	100.0	0.0
New England	0.0	100.0	0.0
Gellibrand	100.0	0.0	0.0
Menzies	0.0	100.0	0.0
Cowper	0.0	100.0	0.0
Mayo	0.0	100.0	0.0
Mitchell	0.0	100.0	0.0
Parkes	0.0	100.0	0.0
Tangney	0.0	100.0	0.0
Port Adelaide	100.0	0.0	0.0
Riverina	0.0	100.0	0.0
Pearce	0.0	100.0	0.0
Maranoa	0.0	100.0	0.0
Farrer	0.0	100.0	0.0
Wills	100.0	0.0	0.0
Groom	0.0	100.0	0.0
Kennedy	0.0	0.0	100.0
Wannon	0.0	100.0	0.0
O'Connor	0.0	100.0	0.0
Durack	0.0	100.0	0.0