Monday, November 2, 2015

Aggregation and observations

Dear reader, before moving to the aggregation, you should know that I have upgraded my analytical tool set from JAGS 3.4.0 to JAGS 4.0.1. The good news is that the aggregation models run about twice as fast as they did previously. Also, I have fixed a couple of trivial coding glitches in the Dirichlet models which became evident with the new JAGS (updated code here).

The Morgan Poll continues its statistical hagiography of the Turnbull government. With preferences distributed on the basis of the previous election, this is the third 55 to 45 from Morgan. Plugging these numbers into my standard aggregation model we get an estimated two-party preferred voting intention for the Coalition of 53.3 per cent.

Just for the fun of it, I thought I would see what difference it would make if we treated the post Malcolm Turnbull polls as a new series from Morgan. The results follow.

In this last chart, it is interesting to note the change in systemic polling drift from the House of Morgan before and after the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull.

Turning to the Dirichlet model of primary votes, we have ...

And across all the models.

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