Day 2 - Federal Election 2025

Today I spent some time looking at the published two-party preferred (2pp) opinion poll estimates for each of the Australian states and territories. [Note: I have excluded Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory because there was not enough polls for these jurisdictions]. 

We will start with the headline chart that shows the current state of polling compared with the outcome of the previous election. As you can see, with the exception of Queensland, Labor state polling is below what each State achieved at the 2022 Federal Election. In the three largest states, it is below 50 per cent. 

The individual state time-series data, analysed using a monthly Gaussian random walk (GRW), is as follows. Because there were fewer polls for South Australia and Western Australia, the error bars are wider.

If the current polls are indicative of the final election outcome, it will be a close election, with neither the Coalition nor Labor having sufficient seats to form government in their own right. The eventual winner would need to negotiate with and secure the support of minor parties and independents in order to form government.