Around lunchtime every day I take a snapshot of the odds for the winner of the next Federal Election at sportsbet. I use it as a barometer of public intuition for who might win the next election. At the moment it is very close. Today the win probabilities are effectively 50/50 for both Labor and the Coalition (ignoring the long shot outcome of any other party).
Over the past fortnight I have recorded the following win probabilities (all percentages).
The punters think it a very close race (at least that's what they think at the moment).
Note: betting markets are not reliable predictors of election outcomes.
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