Since Donald Trump was sworn in as the President of the United States of America, the Australian polls have been trending away from the Coalition. Now Labor is is ahead on all of my aggregation models of the two-party preferred vote. If an election was held now, the sizeable "third party" vote would see either Labor or the Coalition form minority government.
With the primary vote polling, we have seen a continued movement to "third party' candidates (including independents). the Coalition's primary vote has slumped since the start of 2025. Note, in the following charts, the Others grouping includes One Nation, which has also been charted separately.
The attitudinal polling has seen improvements for Albanese at Dutton's expense.
Notwithstanding the above movements in the aggregate polls, the betting market remains unchanged.
This is such an excellent series. Thank you for doing this.
ReplyDeleteSportsbet and perhaps other places now also have odds on the type of government formed, LNP majority or minority and ALP minority or majority. They might be worth adding to the set.