Friday 28 March - we have an Election date

It has happened. This morning a Federal election was called for Saturday 3 May. The Parliament has been prorogued (a fancy word for closed). The House of Representatives has been dissolved. The Government is now a caretaker government, and (by convention) it only takes major decisions in consultation with the Opposition.

Over the next six weeks I will be blogging most days on electoral and polling matters.

The betting market

The betting market at sportsbet has moved around a bit over the past few days. Around noon today, it gave Labor a 52.6 per cent probability of winning the 2025 election. That is very close to even money, with Labor as the slight favourite going into this race.

Primary Votes

I have been looking at the primary votes for each of the major party groupings today. Nationally, the Coalition and the Greens are up on their 2022 benchmark. Labor and others (collectively) are down Although it should be noted that One Nation - which I usually group with Others - is up on its 2022 benchmark. The other parties trend in South Australia is particularly intriguing, and something I will come back to in a future blog. 

I also plot the state primary vote time series on a monthly basis. However, I do not adjust this data to make it consistent with the national trends. I do not make adjustments for House effects. And I ignore Tasmania and the NT, because there is simply not enough polls in those states.