Late March Update

An Australian Federal election is likely to called in the next few weeks, and could be called as early as this weekend. Yesterday, the betting market has saw Labor pull ahead as the favourite to form government after the election. 

In the opinion polls, we are continuing to see a drift away from the Coalition and towards Labor, that has been evidence since early January this year. Labor is in front now in terms of their two-party preferred vote share. This is not enough for a majority Labor government, but it should see Labor somewhat better positioned to form minority government. Nonetheless, a minority Coalition government cannot be rulled out. 

On the first preference primary votes, the polls have Labor and Others (including One Nation) below their 2022 Election benchmarks. The Coalition, the Greens and One Nation (by itself) are above their 2022 benchmarks.

Collectively the trend from the major parties to the minor parties and independents may have reached a cyclical peak.

We have enough data to look at the primary vote trends in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. While I can produce charts for the other states, I am less confident that we have sufficient data. The charts for Tasmania and the Northern Territory do not have enough inputs data to be meaningful. Because the data is sparse, it is analysed in the following charts on a monthly rather than daily basis.