Essential 46.4/53.6 and Roy Morgan 44.8/55.2

Two new polls are out today. Adjusting for undecideds, and using preference flows from the 2019 election, I have them as follows:

• Essential, 17-20 February 2022, with a two-party preferred estimate of 46.4 to 53.6 in Labor's favour
• Roy Morgan, 31 January to 13 February 2022, with a two-party preferred estimate of 44.8 to 55.2 in Labor's favour

Both polls suggest a landslide win for Labor if an election were held now.

The 2pp charts continue to look ugly for the Coalition.

The primary vote estimates from pollsters follow.

 

Newspoll 55 to 45 in Labor's favour

The latest Newspoll, which was sampled between 9 and 12 February 2022, gave Labor a two-party preferred vote share of 55 per cent to the Coalition's 45. When I adjust the primary vote estimates for preference flows at the 2019 election, I get a 2pp estimate of 55.1 to 44.9 per cent in Labor's favour. If an election was held with this outcome, it would see a landslide win for Labor. 

Newspoll continues to be the pollster most favourable for Labor and least favourable for the Coalition. 

 

 

The primary vote estimates follow. The wide spread between pollsters in respect of the Labor and other party primary votes continues.

Four Essential polls

Yesterday Essential released four polls covering the periods: 1-5 December 2021, 8-13 December2021, 20-23 January 2022 and 2-6 February 2022. All of the polls had Labor ahead in 2pp terms. The most recent poll estimated two party preferred voting intentions as follows:  Labor 47, Coalition 46, undecided 8). Essential is now the pollster most favourable to the Coalition.

Essential's primary vote estimates are not showing the same movements as the other pollsters.

Morgan 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor's favour

Yesterday's Roy Morgan poll, which was in the field between 17 and 30 January, had Labor on 56.5 and the Coalition on 43.5 per cent in two-party preferred terms. This equates to a landslide win for Labor.

When I apply the preference flows at the 2019 election, I get an a two-party preferred estimate of 54.9 to 45.1 in Labor's favour. This is still a landslide win fr Labor. 

The Bayesian aggregation, adjusting for house effects, tells much the same story. Even this more cautious assessment of the 2pp vote share for the Coalition would see a Labor landslide win.

The polling feature I am interested in is the disagreements in the primary vote polling between the polling firms. While the pollsters are in reasonably close agreement on the Greens and the Coalition, they disagree substantially in terms of Labor's primary vote and the primary vote for other parties.  Essential and Resolve Strategic are typically more than 5 percentage points apart when it comes to Labor and the other parties.