## Wednesday, August 19, 2015

### Betting market update

This morning as I checked the odds over breakfast, I noticed that Ladbrokes has lengthened its odds on a Coalition win. Yesterday morning Labbrokes was paying $1.65 for a Coalition win and$2.20 for a Labor win. This morning it was $1.70 and$2.10.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-19 Betfair 1.72 2.14 55.440415
2015-08-19 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-19 Luxbet 1.66 2.20 56.994819
2015-08-19 Sportsbet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-19 TABtouch 1.76 2.04 53.684211
2015-08-19 William Hill 1.77 2.05 53.664921

You will notice I have added the betfair exchange to the mix. The betfair odds reported above are the odds to back, which have then been adjusted to make them comparable with those from other houses. The adjustment builds in the maximum winning commission payable (5%). The formula for this is as follows:

$adjusted = ((original - 1) * (1 - commission)) + 1$

The charts follow (with the odds collected once per day, typically between 7am and 8am).