Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Polling update

Two new polls to aggregate this week:

  • Morgan poll (with preference distribution based on the previous election) was 46.5 to 53.5 in Labor's favour (and a one point move to the Coalition over the previous Morgan poll).
  • Newspoll was 46 to 54 in Labor's favour and unchanged on the previous Newspoll.

Collectively, these polls suggest the Coalition's recent decline has come to an end. But, the Coalition would not win an election with these poll results. We can see this in my usual aggregation model.

The plateauing of Labor's decline is evident across the models I run. All of the models are predicting a Labor win, were the election held now.

Primary vote aggregations (noting that the Other chart includes Palmer):

On the attitudinals, the Prime Minister appears to be trending down while the Opposition Leader is trending up.

The betting market provides an interesting counterpoint. Yesterday Luxbet moved in the Coalition's favour and this morning William Hill and TABtouch have moved in the Coalition's favour.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-25 Betfair 1.67 2.22 57.069409
2015-08-25 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-25 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-25 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-25 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-25 TABtouch 1.71 2.09 55.000000
2015-08-25 William Hill 1.72 2.10 54.973822

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