Sportsbet has Tony Abbott on $1.40 to be the Coalition leader at the time of the next federal election. Malcolm Turnbull is on $4.50; Julie Bishop is on $5.00; Scott Morrison is on $7.50; and Joe Hockey is on $16. We will ignore the amusing odds beyond Hockey, other than to chuckle at the odds for Sophie Mirabella on $251, who has equal odds with Bronwyn Bishop. And while Sophie is not in Parliament, she has better odds of leading the Coalition at the next election than Clive Palmer at $501.
While odds of $1.40 would suggest a probability in excess of 70 per cent for Tony Abbott to lead the Coalition at the time of the next election, this market has a huge bookmaker's overround. The actual probability from the odds once the overround is considered is something like 47.8 per cent for Tony Abbott; 14.9 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull; 13.4 per cent for Julie Bishop; and 8.9 per cent for Scott Morrison.
Sportsbet has the Coalition on $1.52 and Labor on $2.30 to form Government after the next election. In round terms, these odds equate to a 60.2 per cent chance of a Coalition win and a 39.8 per cent chance of a Labor win.
For the Coalition to win the next election, the polls have about 13 to 14 months to stage a dramatic turnaround. At the moment I have Labor well in front on 52.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote share to the Coalition's 47.3 per cent.
How to you explain the discrepancy between the betting markets and the polling results?
ReplyDeleteThere are a few possible answers to this question:
ReplyDeleteHistorically, opinion polls are not very good at forecasting an election result more than 12 months out.
It is unusual (but not unheard of) for a first term government to lose their first election.
Linked to the last point, the perception that people will/still remember the dysfunction under the previous government; and that for a majority it is still greater than any dissatisfaction with the current government.
The view that polls are more like beauty contests, rather than indications of voting intention, between elections. A number of people only think about and form a voting intention close to the polls. Between elections, the opinion polls are only indicating whether the public like the Prime Minister or the Opposition Leader.
etc. etc.