Saturday, August 1, 2015

The slide continues ...

I have four data fusion models for the opinion polls. Two models are based on the published two-party preferred estimates from polling houses. Two models are based on the published primary vote estimates. Two models are anchored to the 2013 Election result. Two models assume the collective bias of the pollsters sum to zero.  All of the models are suggesting a slide in the Coalition's fortunes since the 2015 May Budget bounce.

The usual aggregation (the blue line in the above chart) follows. It has the Coalition on 47.3 to Labor's 52.7. The aggregation includes yesterday's ReactTEL poll (47-53 in Labor's favour; a one-point move to Labor over the previous poll).

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