Thursday, August 27, 2015


The most recent Essential poll 49 to 51 in Labor's favour (a two point move in the Coalition's favour in a fortnight) is a little surprising. It is not in line with the other polls. And it has affected the PollBludger's BludgerTrack. This difference can be seen in the right hand side of the next chart.

I am not sure this recent movement in the Essential poll series is anything but noise. But it is worth keeping an eye on.

While we are here, it is worth looking at how the Essential primary vote estimates are tracking against the Dirichlet aggregates (which, like the TPP aggregate above do not include the Essential polls).

Perhaps of most interest in the Essential primaries, is the Greens. Essential is not seeing the growth in the Green vote over this Parliamentary term the way others have seen it.

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