Friday, May 20, 2016

Full betting market update

Once again it is Friday, which means it is time for a full betting market update.

The most recent odds for the Coalition winning the election are as follows.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-05-20 Betfair 1.29 4.04 75.80
2016-05-20 CrownBet 1.30 3.45 72.63
2016-05-20 Ladbrokes 1.30 3.40 72.34
2016-05-20 Luxbet 1.28 3.60 73.77
2016-05-20 Sportsbet 1.30 3.50 72.92
2016-05-20 TABtouch 1.28 3.45 72.94
2016-05-20 William Hill 1.28 3.60 73.77

The implied Coalition win probabilities have increased over the week.

Fr 13-May Sa 14-May Su 15-May Mo 16-May Tu 17-May We 18-May Th 19-May Fr 20-May
Betfair 71.70 73.23 73.08 73.90 72.80 74.40 74.76 75.80
CrownBet 70.96 70.96 70.96 70.96 70.96 70.00 71.73 72.63
Ladbrokes 70.96 70.96 72.34 70.00 70.00 70.00 72.34 72.34
Luxbet 74.19 74.19 74.19 73.07 71.43 73.77 73.77 73.77
Sportsbet 70.96 69.00 69.00 69.00 70.48 70.48 72.92 72.92
TABtouch 70.79 71.43 71.43 72.94 70.47 72.94 72.94 72.94
William Hill 71.74 72.34 72.34 73.77 71.43 73.77 73.77 73.77
Average 71.61 71.73 71.91 71.95 71.08 72.19 73.18 73.45

Which can be seen in the usual charts as follows.




Turning to the Sportsbet odds on individual seats: This morning we had odds on all seat outcomes except O'Connor in WA (which is a safe Coalition seat). The chart for the count of favourites in the 149 seats with odds follows.


Which in table form follows (with O'Connor added by hand). The 0.5 comes from Swan, where the Coalition and Labor are equal favourites.

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0

The remainder of these tables are produced automatically. I have dumped theme here unedited.

Seats with Equal Favourites

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 0.0 0.0 45.69 0.0

Complete list of Seat Odds

$ 1 Territory Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 4.00 21.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0
Aston (VIC) - 34.0 1.05 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Ballarat (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Banks (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Barker (SA) - 26.0 1.05 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0
Barton (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Bass (TAS) - 26.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.75 - - -
Batman (VIC) - 26.0 26.00 3.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Bendigo (VIC) - 26.0 6.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Bennelong (NSW) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Berowra (NSW) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Blair (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Blaxland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Bonner (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Boothby (SA) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 7.50 - - 6.0
Bowman (QLD) - 17.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.50 - - -
Braddon (TAS) - 21.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.60 - - -
Bradfield (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Brand (WA) - 26.0 13.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Brisbane (QLD) - 26.0 1.62 21.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Bruce (VIC) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Burt (WA) - 34.0 2.25 - - - 1.60 - - -
Calare (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0
Calwell (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canberra (ACT) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canning (WA) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Capricornia (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 26.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Casey (VIC) - 26.0 1.17 26.00 - - 4.50 - - -
Chifley (NSW) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Chisholm (VIC) - 26.0 6.50 21.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Cook (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Corangamite (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Corio (VIC) - 16.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.02 - - -
Cowan (WA) - 26.0 1.67 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Cunningham (NSW) - 13.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Curtin (WA) - 26.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Dawson (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Deakin (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 15.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Denison (TAS) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 1.10 - 6.00 - - -
Dickson (QLD) - 26.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Dobell (NSW) - 34.0 2.50 34.00 - - 1.50 - - -
Dunkley (VIC) - 41.0 1.58 31.00 - - 2.40 - - -
Durack (WA) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) - 51.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Fadden (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Fairfax (QLD) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Farrer (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 21.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Fenner (ACT) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Fisher (QLD) - 17.0 1.10 21.00 - - 7.50 - - -
Flinders (VIC) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Flynn (QLD) - 16.0 1.30 34.00 - - 3.30 - - -
Forde (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Forrest (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Fowler (NSW) - 16.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Franklin (TAS) - 26.0 8.00 11.00 - - 1.07 - - -
Fremantle (WA) - 26.0 13.00 4.20 - - 1.20 - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 12.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Gilmore (NSW) - 31.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Gippsland (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Goldstein (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 34.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Gorton (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Grayndler (NSW) - 26.0 17.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - -
Greenway (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - -
Grey (SA) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - 16.0
Griffith (QLD) - 34.0 6.00 23.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Groom (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0
Hasluck (WA) - 26.0 2.00 21.00 - - 1.70 - - -
Herbert (QLD) - 21.0 1.30 26.00 - - 3.50 - - -
Higgins (VIC) - 26.0 1.15 7.50 - - 16.00 - - 11.0
Hindmarsh (SA) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 - - 1.75 - - 7.5
Hinkler (QLD) - 15.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.00 - - -
Holt (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hotham (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hughes (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Hume (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 15.00 - - -
Hunter(NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Indi (VIC) - 26.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 16.00 11.0 6.0 -
Isaacs (VIC) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Kennedy (QLD) - 26.0 4.25 26.00 - 1.2 21.00 - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 11.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Kingston (SA) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - 8.0
Kooyong (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
La Trobe (Vic) - 26.0 1.60 21.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Lalor (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) - 12.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Lilley (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Lindsay (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 21.00 - - 2.40 - - 16.0
Lingiari (NT) 51.0 26.0 3.00 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
Longman (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Lyne (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Lyons (TAS) - 16.0 1.55 26.00 - - 2.35 - - -
Macarthur (NSW) - 21.0 2.00 34.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0
Mackellar (NSW) - - 1.01 26.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - -
Macquarie (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Makin (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0
Mallee (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maranoa (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Mayo (SA) - 21.0 1.10 31.00 - - 31.00 - - 5.0
McEwen (VIC) - 26.0 3.40 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
McMahon (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
McMillan (VIC) - 21.0 1.02 26.00 - - 11.00 - - -
McPherson (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Melbourne (VIC) - 26.0 21.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 5.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Menzies (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - -
Mitchell (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moore (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Moreton (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - 16.0
Murray (VIC) - 16.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 2.1 1.6 -
New England (NSW) - 26.0 1.40 26.00 2.50 - 26.00 - - -
Newcastle (NSW) - 17.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.04 - - -
North Sydney (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Oxley (QLD) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Page (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 11.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Parkes (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Parramatta (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Paterson (NSW) - 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - -
Pearce (WA) - 26.0 1.20 21.00 - - 4.20 - - -
Perth (WA) - 51.0 8.00 21.00 - - 1.03 - - -
Petrie (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 41.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - 11.0
Rankin (QLD) - 21.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Reid (NSW) - 26.0 1.63 26.00 - - 2.05 - - -
Richmond (NSW) - 26.0 4.50 5.00 - - 1.45 - - -
Riverina (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Robertson (NSW) - 34.0 1.57 7.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Ryan (QLD) - 26.0 1.10 16.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Scullin (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Shortland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Solomon (NT) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 101.00 - 1.50 - - -
Stirling (WA) - 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - -
Sturt (SA) - - 1.15 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 5.0
Swan (WA) - 26.0 1.87 16.00 - - 1.87 - - -
Sydney (NSW) - 26.0 21.00 5.00 - - 1.17 - - -
Tangney (WA) - - 1.01 21.00 12.00 - 26.00 - - -
Wakefield (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 6.0
Wannon (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Warringah (NSW) - 9.0 1.06 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 8.0
Watson (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wentworth (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Werriwa (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Whitlam (NSW) - 16.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) - 15.0 1.07 26.00 - - 7.00 - - -
Wills (VIC) - 41.0 31.00 4.50 - - 1.16 - - -
Wright (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 13.00 - - -

Complete list of Seat Probabilities

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Wills (VIC) 2.14 2.83 19.48 - - 75.56 -
Batman (VIC) 3.34 3.34 28.96 - - 64.36 -
Port Adelaide (SA) 3.17 3.92 3.92 - - 81.51 7.48
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 -
Cunningham (NSW) 6.62 4.10 4.10 - - 85.19 -
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 -
Fowler (NSW) 5.45 4.15 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Sydney (NSW) 3.37 4.17 17.53 - - 74.92 -
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 -
Wakefield (SA) 3.12 5.07 3.12 - - 75.16 13.53
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 3.18 5.17 16.53 - - 75.13 -
Makin (SA) 3.18 5.17 3.18 - - 76.64 11.82
Scullin (VIC) 3.26 5.30 10.61 - - 80.82 -
Gelibrand (VIC) 3.28 5.32 7.10 - - 84.31 -
Corio (VIC) 5.35 5.35 5.35 - - 83.95 -
Gorton (VIC) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 -
Chifley (NSW) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Fenner (ACT) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Fremantle (WA) 3.24 6.48 20.06 - - 70.22 -
Brand (WA) 3.34 6.67 4.13 - - 85.86 -
Kingston (SA) 3.22 6.98 3.22 - - 76.12 10.47
Whitlam (NSW) 5.32 7.10 3.28 - - 84.31 -
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Oxley (QLD) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Rankin (QLD) 4.11 7.19 3.32 - - 85.39 -
Holt (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Hotham (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Shortland (NSW) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Ballarat (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Newcastle (NSW) 5.11 7.24 4.14 - - 83.52 -
Canberra (ACT) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Hunter(NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Blaxland (NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Lalor (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Maribyrnong (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Calwell (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Werriwa (NSW) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Watson (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 -
McMahon (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 -
Moreton (QLD) 3.16 9.65 3.91 - - 78.15 5.13
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 3.21 9.81 7.58 - - 79.40 -
Isaacs (VIC) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 -
Lilley (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 -
Blair (QLD) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 -
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 -
Franklin (TAS) 3.23 10.51 7.65 - - 78.61 -
Perth (WA) 1.69 10.75 4.09 - - 83.47 -
Chisholm (VIC) 3.35 13.39 4.14 - - 79.12 -
Bendigo (VIC) 3.34 14.46 3.34 - - 78.87 -
Griffith (QLD) 2.56 14.51 3.79 - - 79.14 -
Bruce (VIC) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 -
Parramatta (NSW) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 -
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 -
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 -
Kennedy (QLD) 3.22 19.72 3.22 - 69.84 3.99 -
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 -
Adelaide (SA) 3.21 20.85 3.97 - - 62.71 9.27
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 -
McEwen (VIC) 3.35 25.59 4.14 - - 66.92 -
Lingiari (NT) 4.81 27.59 3.94 - - 63.66 -
Capricornia (QLD) 3.34 28.96 3.34 - - 64.36 -
Petrie (QLD) 3.38 29.32 2.15 - - 65.15 -
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 - - 48.36 11.28
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 - 57.80 -
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 -
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 - - - 56.88 -
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 -
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 45.02 1.77 - - 51.45 -
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 -
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 -
Banks (NSW) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 - - 38.29 -
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 -
Reid (NSW) 3.26 52.07 3.26 - - 41.40 -
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 -
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 -
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 -
Lindsay (NSW) 3.12 54.12 3.87 - - 33.82 5.07
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 -
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 -
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 -
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 -
New England (NSW) 3.13 58.09 3.13 32.53 - 3.13 -
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 -
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 -
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 -
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 -
Leichhardt (QLD) 6.97 61.94 3.22 - - 27.87 -
Dickson (QLD) 3.34 64.36 3.34 - - 28.96 -
Flynn (QLD) 5.37 66.08 2.53 - - 26.03 -
Herbert (QLD) 4.17 67.42 3.37 - - 25.04 -
Boothby (SA) 3.18 68.86 3.18 - - 11.02 13.77
Sturt (SA) - 69.52 3.07 - - 11.42 15.99
Bass (TAS) 3.36 69.96 3.36 - - 23.32 -
Longman (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 -
Dawson (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 -
Pearce (WA) 3.32 71.99 4.11 - - 20.57 -
Higgins (VIC) 3.22 72.78 11.16 - - 5.23 7.61
Hinkler (QLD) 5.68 74.02 3.27 - - 17.03 -
Casey (VIC) 3.33 74.07 3.33 - - 19.26 -
Mayo (SA) 3.90 74.44 2.64 - - 2.64 16.38
Warringah (NSW) 8.78 74.54 3.04 - - 3.76 9.88
Bowman (QLD) 5.12 75.70 3.35 - - 15.83 -
Ryan (QLD) 3.27 77.26 5.31 - - 14.16 -
Barker (SA) 3.18 78.67 3.18 - - 3.18 11.80
Bennelong (NSW) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 -
Canning (WA) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 -
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.64 79.03 3.25 - - 12.08 -
Fisher (QLD) 5.12 79.13 4.14 - - 11.61 -
Aston (VIC) 2.48 80.24 3.24 - - 14.04 -
Calare (NSW) 6.82 81.02 3.15 - - 3.90 5.11
Grey (SA) 3.17 81.63 3.17 - - 6.87 5.15
Groom (QLD) 6.96 82.65 3.21 - - 3.21 3.97
Menzies (VIC) 3.21 82.76 3.21 7.60 - 3.21 -
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 -
Moncrieff (QLD) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Mitchell (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Wentworth (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
McMillan (VIC) 4.11 84.71 3.32 - - 7.85 -
Farrer (NSW) 7.13 84.72 4.07 - - 4.07 -
Bradfield (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Hughes (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Tangney (WA) - 85.39 4.11 7.19 - 3.32 -
Wannon (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Riverina (NSW) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Durack (WA) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Mackellar (NSW) - 85.39 3.32 7.19 - 4.11 -
Forrest (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Maranoa (QLD) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Mallee (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
McPherson (QLD) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Gippsland (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Moore (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Flinders (VIC) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Curtin (WA) 3.33 85.83 5.42 - - 5.42 -
Fadden (QLD) 5.42 85.83 3.33 - - 5.42 -
Wright (QLD) 4.13 85.86 3.34 - - 6.67 -
Kooyong (VIC) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
Fairfax (QLD) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 -
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 -
Berowra (NSW) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
North Sydney (NSW) 4.15 86.26 4.15 - - 5.45 -
Hume (NSW) 4.17 86.63 3.37 - - 5.83 -
Goldstein (VIC) 3.37 86.75 2.58 - - 7.30 -
Murray (VIC) 5.00 88.11 3.08 - - 3.81 -

Greens in with a chance (ie. with a probability >= 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 -
Batman (VIC) 3.34 3.34 28.96 - - 64.36 -
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 -

Xenophon in with a chance

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate

Independent in with a chance

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
New England (NSW) 3.13 58.09 3.13 32.53 - 3.13 -
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 -
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 -

Three Cornered Contests

Any Other Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
DateTime Electorate
2016-05-20 06:12:38 Indi (VIC) 3.08 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 7.29 13.36 -
Murray (VIC) 5.00 3.08 - - 3.81 38.10 50.01 -

CHANGING SEATS

TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Labor
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
O'Connor (WA) LIB 15.3% Lib 0.9% v NAT Coalition -
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition ?

Close Seats (where the favourite is on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 -
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 - - 48.36 11.28
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 - 57.80 -
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 -
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 - - - 56.88 -
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 -
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 45.02 1.77 - - 51.45 -
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 -
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 -
Banks (NSW) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 - - 38.29 -
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 -
Reid (NSW) 3.26 52.07 3.26 - - 41.40 -
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 -
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 -
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 -
Lindsay (NSW) 3.12 54.12 3.87 - - 33.82 5.07
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 -
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 -
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 -
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 -
New England (NSW) 3.13 58.09 3.13 32.53 - 3.13 -
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 -
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 -
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 -
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 -

3 comments:

  1. Mark ,I may have missed it but it would be good to put up what seats the bookies are saying the coalition will win, ?The ALP and then Independents so we know what they are saying for the result.

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    Replies
    1. Added favourites to the table here (at bottom of post) ... http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/reachtel-50-50-ipsos-51-49.html

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