Betting Market Update

The past 12 days have seen a sustained decline for the Coalition's mean win probability on betting markets, from a campaign high of 29.2 per cent to a record low of 17.2 per cent this morning.

Date	Mean Coalition Win Probability (%)
2019-04-11	19.30
2019-04-12	20.75
2019-04-13	21.65
2019-04-14	21.96
2019-04-15	21.96
2019-04-16	20.24
2019-04-17	20.19
2019-04-18	21.50
2019-04-19	21.53
2019-04-20	22.65
2019-04-21	23.01
2019-04-22	23.44
2019-04-23	23.44
2019-04-24	22.96
2019-04-25	23.30
2019-04-26	24.54
2019-04-27	24.54
2019-04-28	24.54
2019-04-29	25.29
2019-04-30	29.15
2019-05-01	28.13
2019-05-02	27.08
2019-05-03	27.08
2019-05-04	24.61
2019-05-05	23.30
2019-05-06	22.30
2019-05-07	23.14
2019-05-08	23.04
2019-05-09	20.20
2019-05-10	18.01
2019-05-11	17.17

This dramatic rise and fall since the campaign began on 11 April can be seen on the right hand side of the following charts.

Turning to the individual seat markets at Sportsbet, the summary charts follow. Consistent with the above charts, the bookmakers see a sizable Labor majority as the most likely outcome.

I have also used the probabilities from the individual seats for a Monte Carlo simulation of the election. In these simulations, Labor has a 99.5 per cent chance of forming a majority government.

Over the course of the campaign, the individual seat win probabilities have changed as follows.

The latest probabilities for all seats follow.