Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Betting market update

This morning we had a small bounce in the Coalition's mean win probability: 16.9 per cent. This was up from 15.8 per cent for the past two mornings.

For the individual seats, the summary statistics follow.

This looks like a small movement to the Coalition. Labor's probability of winning majority government has slipped from 99.5 per cent (when I last ran this) to 99.0 per cent. The Coalition has no chance of winning majority government according to the punters.

The probability time series for each seat follows.

And finally, the current table of probabilities for each seat.

No comments:

Post a Comment