Thursday, May 9, 2019

The complete dump of individual seats

An update from the betting market this morning. We will start with the summaries.

The 151 time-series charts for each seat follow. Because the bookmakers have such humongous over-rounds with their individual seat odds, I take a fairly savage approach with the long-shot odds.
  • For odds between $1.01 and $1.02 (bookmaker raw probabilities between 98 and 99 per cent), I have treated the seat as having a probability of 100 per cent for the favourite.  
  • For odds between $1.03 and $1.50 (bookmaker raw probabilities between 66.7 and 97 per cent), I have done all of the normalisation for the bookmaker's over-round in terms of the non-favourite parties.  
  • For odds in excess of $9.99, I have simply ignored them.

And the odds from this moring.

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