A last fleeting look at the betting markets

At 8.10am on the morning of the election, the pollsters have Labor as the clear favourite.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2019-05-18	BetEasy	6.00	1.13	15.85
2019-05-18	Ladbrokes	7.00	1.10	13.58
2019-05-18	Sportsbet	5.75	1.14	16.55

Turning to the individual seat markets at Sportsbet, the summary charts follow. These are consistent with a TPP vote for Labor around 51.5 per cent.

For the individual seat odds, the implied majority government formation is 96.5 per cent. The Coalition has no chance of forming majority governmnet.

The 151 time-series charts for each seat follow. Because the bookmakers have such humongous over-rounds with their individual seat odds, I take a fairly savage approach with the long-shot odds.

• For odds between $1.01 and $1.02 (bookmaker raw probabilities between 98 and 99 per cent), I have treated the seat as having a probability of 100 per cent for the favourite.  
• For odds between $1.03 and $1.50 (bookmaker raw probabilities between 66.7 and 97 per cent), I have done all of the normalisation for the bookmaker's over-round in terms of the non-favourite parties.  
• For odds in excess of $9.99, I have simply ignored them. 

Note: I have set the odds for Katter in Kennedy to $1.05, as this betting option was suspended.

Note: betting on Katter in Kennedy was suspended. Estimate based on Labor odds.

The key odds that inform the above charts follow.

	Labor	Coalition	Liberal (Coalition)	National (Coalition)	Greens	Independent	Centre Alliance	Katter's Australian Party	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Adelaide (SA)	1.08	6			31
Aston (VIC)	4.4	1.2			41
Ballarat (VIC)	1.01	11			34	21
Banks (NSW)	2.9	1.35			16
Barker (SA)	12	1.03			51		9
Barton (NSW)	1.01	11			21
Bass (TAS)	1.38	2.75			21
Bean (ACT)	1.03	10			31	31
Bendigo (VIC)	1.04	8.5			41
Bennelong (NSW)	8	1.05			21
Berowra (NSW)	11	1.01			21	31
Blair (QLD)	1.1	10
Blaxland (NSW)	1.01	11			61
Bonner (QLD)	3.2	1.3			61
Boothby (SA)	3	1.3			21	26
Bowman (QLD)	4.75	1.15			31
Braddon (TAS)	1.9	1.8			61	10
Bradfield (NSW)	11	1.01			41
Brand (WA)	1.08	7			31
Brisbane (QLD)	3.2	1.35			8
Bruce (VIC)	1.01	11			51
Burt (WA)	1.01	11			21	26			9.5
Calare (NSW)	12	1.1			31				5.5
Calwell (VIC)	1.01	11			26
Canberra (ACT)	1.01	12			11	26
Canning (WA)	5.5	1.1			26
Capricornia (QLD)	1.85	1.85				26
Casey (VIC)	2.85	1.4			36	21
Chifley (NSW)	1.01	11			21	31
Chisholm (VIC)	1.35	3				21
Clark (TAS)	11	21			31	1.01
Cook (NSW)	11	1.01			34
Cooper (VIC)	1.14	31			4.5	41
Corangamite (VIC)	1.32	3.1			26	46
Corio (VIC)	1.01	11			34
Cowan (WA)	1.16	4.5			31
Cowper (NSW)	21	1.93			51	1.72
Cunningham (NSW)	1.01	11			16
Curtin (WA)	14	1.1			31	5.5
Dawson (QLD)	2.2	1.6			51			8
Deakin (VIC)	2	1.77			31	31
Dickson (QLD)	1.55	2.35			31
Dobell (NSW)	1.06	7.5			21	31
Dunkley (VIC)	1.1	5.75			26
Durack (WA)	7.5	1.06			31
Eden-Monaro (NSW)	1.05	8			21	12
Fadden (QLD)	8	1.05			31
Fairfax (QLD)	11	1.01			21	21
Farrer (NSW)	31	1.85				1.8
Fenner (ACT)	1.01	11			41
Fisher (QLD)	6.5	1.08			34
Flinders (VIC)	2.4	1.5			31	16
Flynn (QLD)	2.2	1.6			21	18
Forde (QLD)	1.35	3			51
Forrest (WA)	11	1.01			21	31			26
Fowler (NSW)	1.01	12			14
Franklin (TAS)	1.01	11			31
Fraser (VIC)	1.01	11			41	21
Fremantle (WA)	1.01	11			21
Gellibrand (VIC)	1.01	61			11
Gilmore (NSW)	1.3		3	12	31
Gippsland (VIC)	21	1.01			51	31			11
Goldstein (VIC)	9	1.03			51	24
Gorton (VIC)	1.01	26			11	21
Grayndler (NSW)	1.01	51			11
Greenway (NSW)	1.01	11			16
Grey (SA)	5.5	1.14			21	26	10
Griffith (QLD)	1.1	21			6
Groom (QLD)	11	1.01
Hasluck (WA)	1.33	2.9			21				31
Herbert (QLD)	3.3	1.26			36			26
Higgins (VIC)	3.5	1.72			2.5
Hindmarsh(SA)	1.01	11			31
Hinkler (QLD)	7.5	1.07				18
Holt (VIC)	1.01	11			34
Hotham (VIC)	1.01	11			21
Hughes (NSW)	4.3	1.18			16	31
Hume (NSW)	6	1.12			21	31
Hunter (NSW)	1.01	11			21
Indi (VIC)	16	1.6			12	2.2
Isaacs (VIC)	1.01	11			31
Jagajaga (VIC)	1.02	10			26
Kennedy (QLD)	10	8			41			1.05
Kingsford Smith (NSW)	1.01	11			31
Kingston (SA)	1.01	11			26
Kooyong (VIC)	12	1.18			4	21
La Trobe (VIC)	1.33	3			34
Lalor (VIC)	1.01	11			41
Leichhardt (QLD)	3.1	1.32			31			6.5
Lilley (QLD)	1.01	11			21
Lindsay (NSW)	2.02	1.64			21
Lingiari (NT)	1.28	3.2			26	36
Longman (QLD)	1.22	3.5			41
Lyne (NSW)	11	1.01				21
Lyons (TAS)	1.02	9			32
Macarthur (NSW)	1.01	11			31
Mackellar (NSW)	26	1.01			21	11
Macnamara (VIC)	1.5	12			2.55	51
Macquarie (NSW)	1.05	8			26
Makin (SA)	1.01	11			41
Mallee (VIC)	12	1.2			51	4			10
Maranoa (QLD)	21	1.1						10
Maribyrnong (VIC)	1.01	11			61
Mayo (SA)	31	6.5			41		1.08
McEwen (VIC)	1.01	11			41	21
McMahon (NSW)	1.01	11			21
McPherson (QLD)	11	1.01			21	21
Melbourne (VIC)	11	16			1.01	51
Menzies (VIC)	5	1.14			41	16
Mitchell (NSW)	11	1.01			21
Monash (VIC)	3.5	1.29			26	21
Moncrieff (QLD)	11	1.01			31
Moore (WA)	6	1.1			21	31
Moreton (QLD)	1.04	8.5			31
New England (NSW)	11	1.01			61	16
Newcastle (NSW)	1.01	12			21
Nicholls (VIC)	11	1.01			61	26
North Sydney (NSW)	11	1.01			18	31
O'Connor (WA)	6.5	1.1			26
Oxley (QLD)	1.01	11			18
Page (NSW)	2.3	1.5			31	12
Parkes (NSW)	5.5	1.1			12	31
Parramatta (NSW)	1.07	4.5			41
Paterson (NSW)	1.01	11			41
Pearce (WA)	2.4	1.5			21	26			15
Perth (WA)	1.07	7			26
Petrie (QLD)	1.66	2			36
Rankin (QLD)	1.01	11			21
Reid (NSW)	1.8	1.9			31
Richmond (NSW)	1.1	12			6	51
Riverina (NSW)	11	1.01			41
Robertson (NSW)	1.38	2.8			31	41
Ryan (QLD)	4	1.18			7
Scullin (VIC)	1.01	11			41	31
Shortland (NSW)	1.01	11			31
Solomon (NT)	1.35	2.85			31	26
Spence (SA)	1.01	11			21	41
Stirling (WA)	1.72	2			31
Sturt (SA)	6.5	1.1			31	26
Swan (WA)	1.55	2.35			26
Sydney (NSW)	1.01	16			11
Tangney (WA)	11	1.01			26	31
Wannon (VIC)	8	1.05			21	31
Warringah (NSW)	51	2.65			41	1.4
Watson (NSW)	1.01	11			21
Wentworth (NSW)	41	1.22			21	4
Werriwa (NSW)	1.01	12			31
Whitlam (NSW)	1.01	12
Wide Bay(QLD)	5.5	1.11				26
Wills (VIC)	1.17	51			4.5
Wright (QLD)	6.5	1.08						26