Tuesday, September 22, 2015


Today we have two new polls:
  • the first Newspoll of the Turnbull season has it at 51 to 49 in the Coalition's favour. This represents a five point movement to the Coalition over the previous Newspoll and the previous prime minister.
  • the first Morgan poll of the season has it at 53.5 to 46.5 in the Coalition's favour (with preferences distributed according to the previous election). This represents a ten point movement to the Coalition over the previous Morgan poll. 

I had debated whether the treat the Morgan Poll as an outlier, and exclude it from the aggregation. In the end I decided it would be better practice to keep it in. But I will review this decision as further polls come to hand. With the Morgan poll, the aggregation stands at 51.3 in the Coalition's favour (to Labor's 48.7).

The anchored model gives the Coalition a further 0.7 percentage points (52.0 per cent).

Betting markets

The past 24 hours have seen some movement towards the Coalition from betfair and ladbrokes. 

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-09-22 Betfair 1.27 3.47 73.206751
2015-09-22 CrownBet 1.40 2.75 66.265060
2015-09-22 Ladbrokes 1.30 3.30 71.739130
2015-09-22 Luxbet 1.40 2.85 67.058824
2015-09-22 Sportsbet 1.28 3.75 74.552684
2015-09-22 TABtouch 1.27 3.65 74.186992
2015-09-22 William Hill 1.28 3.65 74.036511

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