Friday, September 18, 2015

Update

This morning the Murdoch tabloids have a new poll from Galaxy (the first since the Budget) at 51-49 in the Coalition's favour. This is a three point movement in the Coalition's favour since the previous Galaxy poll. The impact of this second poll on the post-Abbott aggregation is minimal: 50.2 to 49.8 per cent in the Coalition's favour.



The betting market appears to have settled.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-09-18 Betfair 1.35 3.14 69.933185
2015-09-18 CrownBet 1.40 2.75 66.265060
2015-09-18 Ladbrokes 1.40 2.80 66.666667
2015-09-18 Luxbet 1.40 2.85 67.058824
2015-09-18 Sportsbet 1.40 3.00 68.181818
2015-09-18 TABtouch 1.26 3.75 74.850299
2015-09-18 William Hill 1.27 3.75 74.701195



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