Monday, October 19, 2015

Add Morgan and aggregate ...

This evening we have another poll from Morgan. According to Morgan, if preferences are distributed by the way in which people voted at the 2013 election, the result is 54 to 46 in the Coalition's favour. This is unchanged on the previous fortnightly result.

Turning to the aggregation we are now estimating that the Coalition has 52.6 per cent of the two party preferred (TPP) vote. Intriguingly, the most recent Morgan polls have been more favourable to the Coalition than other pollsters. In the usual run of things, Morgan has a tendency to be more favourable to Labor.

Updating the primary vote aggregation, we have the following.

The primary vote model has the Coalition TPP at 52.8

There is not a lot of difference between the TPP and primary vote model estimates for the Coalition two-party preferred vote share.

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