Monday, October 12, 2015

Poll aggregation

I am not sure what to make of the Turnbull post-ascension polling. Morgan is positively gushing with the Coalition on 53.5 and 55 in successive polls (distributing preferences based on flows at the last election). Essential has it at 52 and 52. While Newspoll is flatter: 51 and 50.

My inclination is skepticism. Clearly we are still in the honeymoon phase of a new Prime Minister. While happy with the change, my guess is that the punters have yet to firm-up their view on the new leadership. Without an election this will take some months to settle.

Turning to my usual aggregation, I have the Coalition on 51.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote share.

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