Saturday, October 24, 2015


I have not looked at the attitudinal polling for some time. But before we do that, let's catch up on the impact of the latest ReachTEL poll, which came in at 53 to 47 in the Coalition's favour. The aggregation now stands at 52.8 per cent for the Coalition.

As with my other models, I have introduced a discontinuity into the attitudinal polling models I use for data fusion/aggregation. I applied the discontinuity to both the Coalition and Labor series. First, however, let's look at the raw poll results. In these charts, we can see a dramatic change in the Coalition's attitudinal polling, and little change in the Labor polling.

And on to the aggregation.

And placing the results from the two Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes side by side, we get.

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