Saturday, June 18, 2016

Anchored aggregation: Coalition 50.6%

There have been two quite disparate polls in the past 24 hours:

  • The Fairfax/Ipsos poll has the Coalition on 49 per cent, with a high other parties primary vote of 14 per cent.
  • The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition on 51 per cent (and I estimate 52.2 per cent if we apply preference flows at the last election to the primary vote estimates). It also has a relatively high other parties primary vote share of 13.7 percent.

Applying these polls to the Bayesian aggregation, I get a 2013 election anchored estimate of 50.6 per cent in the Coalition's favour.

The high other parties vote suggests that the Nick Xenophon Team might either capture seats from the Coalition or at least play the role of kingmaker with its preference flows.

For this reason, it is worth looking at the primary votes. In the following aggregations, the primary votes are construed such that the sum of the house effects across the parties and across the pollsters sum to zero.

These charts suggest both the Coalition and Labor (but more-so Labor) are losing primary votes to the other parties category.

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