Saturday, June 11, 2016

ReachTEL 50-50

The latest poll from ReachTEL has the gladiators evenly matched on a 50-50 share of the two-party preferred vote. However, if I apply the gross preference flows at the last election to ReachTEL's primary vote estimates, I get the Coalition on 51.9 to Labor on 48.1 per cent.

In the aggregation, which is anchored to the 2013 election results, I have the Coalition on 50.9 per cent, to Labor on 49.1 per cent.I should note that the aggregation uses the published ReachTEL results and not my recalculation noted above.

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