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Sunday, June 19, 2016

This morning's seat odds

I have found a simple way of tabling the individual seat odds, without the huge table I use for analytical purposes (my table has around 100 columns, with one for each of the parties/independents).

Sun 19 June
Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party 101.00FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Labor1.30
Lib Dem 101.00Liberal3.30
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Aston (VIC) Animal Justice Party 101.00AustralianSovereigntyParty51.00
Coalition 1.05FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Labor6.00
Lib Dem $101.00
Ballarat (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition12.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Banks (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.35FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Independent(BobSpanswick)151.00
Labor $3.00
Barker (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.05
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Barton (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Independent(RasmusTorkel)151.00
Labor 1.05OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Bass (TAS) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.25
Green 51.00Labor3.75
Batman (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition34.00
Green 4.00Labor1.15
Bendigo (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition6.00
Green 51.00Labor1.10
Bennelong (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Independent (Martin Mulcare) 51.00Labor12.00
Pirate Party $151.00
Berowra (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Independent(MickGallagher)101.00
Labor 12.00ScienceParty151.00
Blair (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JonathanEmms)151.00
Independent (Patricia Petersen) 151.00Independent(SandyTurner)151.00
Labor 1.05PaulineHanson51.00
Blaxland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition12.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Socialist Equality $151.00
Bonner (QLD) Coalition 1.10FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JarrodWirth)151.00
Labor 4.50LibDem51.00
Boothby (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.18
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Nick Xenophon Team $4.00
Bowman (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00Coalition1.10
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $6.00
Braddon (TAS) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.50
Green 51.00Labor2.50
Bradfield (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Independent (Christine Berman) 151.00Labor12.00
Brand (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Brisbane (QLD) Coalition 1.50FamilyFirst151.00
Green 34.00Labor2.50
Lib Dem 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Bruce (VIC) Any Other 41.00Coalition4.00
Green 51.00Labor1.18
Burt (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition2.70
Labor $1.44
Calare (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 101.00Independent(AnthonyCraig)151.00
Labor 21.00LibDem51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $34.00
Calwell (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Canberra (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition12.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Canning (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Capricornia (QLD) Coalition 2.50FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(KenMurray)151.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 34.00Labor1.50
Casey (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.05
Green 51.00Labor8.50
Chifley (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AmmarKhan)151.00
Labor $1.01
Chisholm (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition3.30
Green 51.00Labor1.30
Cook (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 16.00Independent(JohnBrett)151.00
Labor $34.00
Corangamite (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.15
Green 51.00Labor5.00
Corio (VIC) Any Other 16.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.02
Cowan (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition2.00
Green 51.00Labor1.75
Cowper (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 1.17Green51.00
Independent (John Arkan) 151.00Independent(RobOakeshott)4.50
Labor $34.00
Cunningham (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition26.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Non Custodial Parents Party 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Curtin (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Dawson (QLD) Coalition 1.17FamilyFirst151.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Large) 151.00KAP(BobKatter)41.00
Labor $4.00
Deakin (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.35
Green 34.00Labor3.00
Denison (TAS) Any Other 34.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewWilkie)1.01
Labor $12.00
Dickson (QLD) Coalition 1.10FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(ThorProhaska)81.00
Labor 6.00LibDem51.00
Dobell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition3.00
Green 51.00Independent(GregoryStephenson)151.00
Independent (Paul Baker) 151.00Labor1.35
Pauline Hanson $151.00
Dunkley (VIC) Any Other 41.00Coalition1.30
Green 51.00Labor3.30
Durack (WA) Any Other 16.00Green51.00
Labor 34.00Liberal1.08
National $7.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 2.00Green51.00
Independent (Andrew Thaler) 151.00Independent(DanielGrosmaire)151.00
Independent (Ray Buckley) 151.00Labor1.75
Veterans Party $151.00
Fadden (QLD) Coalition 1.01FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Pauline Hanson 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Fairfax (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Farrer (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Independent (Brian Mills) 151.00Labor21.00
Mature Australia $151.00
Fenner (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewWoodman)101.00
Labor $1.01
Fisher (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor12.00
Flinders (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Flynn (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.20
Green 51.00Labor4.20
Forde (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.50
Green 51.00Labor2.50
Forrest (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Fowler (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Smokers Rights $151.00
Franklin (TAS) Any Other 34.00Coalition7.00
Green 21.00Labor1.07
Fremantle (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition34.00
Green 7.00Labor1.03
Gelibrand (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition26.00
Green 16.00Labor1.01
Gilmore (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.30
Green 51.00Labor3.30
Gippsland (VIC) Any Other 16.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor34.00
Goldstein (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Gorton (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Grayndler (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianCyclists101.00
Australian Sex Party 101.00ChristianDemocraticParty151.00
Coalition 26.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 4.33Labor1.15
Renewable Energy Party 101.00ScienceParty1001.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Greenway (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition4.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Avtar Singh Billu) 151.00Labor1.15
Lib Dem 101.00ScienceParty151.00
Grey (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.27
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Nick Xenophon Team $3.00
Griffith (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition7.00
Green 34.00Labor1.07
Groom (QLD) Any Other 16.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Hasluck (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.87
Green 51.00Labor1.87
Herbert (QLD) Any Other 17.00Coalition1.15
Green 51.00Labor5.00
PUP $51.00
Higgins (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.10
Green 6.00Labor21.00
Nick Xenophon Team $51.00
Hindmarsh (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.30
Green 51.00Labor3.30
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Hinkler (QLD) Any Other 15.00Coalition1.08
Green 51.00Labor6.00
Holt (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Hotham (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Hughes (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Labor $16.00
Hume (NSW) Bullet Train for Australia 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor15.00
Hunter(NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(ArjayMartin)151.00
Independent (Cordelia Troy) 101.00Independent(JohnHarvey)151.00
Independent (John Warham) 151.00Labor1.01
Indi (VIC) Any Other 34.00Green51.00
Independent (Cathy McGowan) 1.15Labor34.00
Liberal 11.00National6.00
Isaacs (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Jagajaga (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Kennedy (QLD) Coalition 12.00FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)1.01
Labor $26.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Science Party $151.00
Kingston (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition12.00
Green 51.00Labor1.07
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Kooyong (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
La Trobe (Vic) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.50
Green 51.00Labor2.50
Lalor (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Leichhardt (QLD) Any Other 21.00Coalition1.25
Green 51.00Labor3.70
Lilley (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Lindsay (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustraliaFirst151.00
Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.10DerrynHinch81.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Marcus Cornish) 51.00Labor6.00
Nick Xenophon Team $31.00
Lingiari (NT) Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition4.00
Green 51.00Independent(AlfredGould)151.00
Independent (Braedon Earley) 101.00Independent(MarkGuyula)151.00
Labor 1.22RiseUpAustralia151.00
Shooters $101.00
Longman (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.20
Green 51.00Labor4.00
Lyne (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 26.00Independent(BradChristensen)151.00
Independent (Roger John Riach) 151.00Labor26.00
Lyons (TAS) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.60
Green 51.00Labor2.20
Macarthur (NSW) Coalition 2.25Green51.00
Labor 1.60NickXenophonTeam16.00
Mackellar (NSW) Coalition 1.01Green26.00
Independent (Jim Ball) 12.00Independent(JulieHegarty)101.00
Independent (Liam Gavin 51.00Labor21.00
Macquarie (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.28DerrynHinch51.00
Green 26.00Labor3.10
Lib Dem 81.00Shooters101.00
Makin (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.08
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Mallee (VIC) Any Other 16.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor21.00
Maranoa (QLD) Any Other 12.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor21.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Mayo (SA) Any Other 51.00Coalition1.87
Green 51.00Labor51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $1.87
McEwen (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
McMahon (NSW) Australia First 151.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(FadhelShamasha)151.00
Labor $1.01
McMillan (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
McPherson (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Melbourne (VIC) Any Other 26.00Coalition34.00
Green 1.05Labor9.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.00
Green 10.00Labor1.08
Menzies (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Stephen Mayne (Independent) $11.00
Mitchell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moncrieff (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moore (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moreton (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Murray (VIC) Any Other 34.00Green51.00
Labor 26.00Liberal1.35
National $3.00
New England (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.30
CountryMinded 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Philip Cox) 101.00Independent(RobTaber)101.00
Independent (Tony Windsor) 3.30Labor34.00
Lib Dem 151.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Newcastle (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Democratic Labour Party 101.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 51.00Independent(RodHolding)151.00
Labor $1.01
North Sydney (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Ruff) 21.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00ScienceParty151.00
O'Connor (WA) Any Other 34.00Green51.00
Labor 21.00Liberal1.10
National $6.00
Oxley (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Page (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.87Green51.00
Labor 1.87LibDem51.00
Parkes (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Parramatta (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition6.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Mahesh Raj) 151.00Labor1.10
Lib Dem 51.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Paterson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 3.75Green26.00
Labor 1.25PaulineHanson101.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Pearce (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor12.00
Perth (WA) Any Other 51.00Coalition8.00
Green 26.00Labor1.03
Petrie (QLD) Any Other 26.00Coalition3.75
Green 41.00Labor1.25
Port Adelaide (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition26.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Nick Xenophon Team $12.00
Rankin (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Reid (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.25
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $3.75
Richmond (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 5.00Green11.00
Labor 1.15PaulineHanson101.00
Riverina (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.01
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Richard Foley) 151.00Labor21.00
Robertson (NSW) Anti-Paedophile Party (Lawrie Higgins) 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.25Green51.00
Independent (Van Davy) 34.00Labor3.75
Lib Dem $51.00
Ryan (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Scullin (VIC) Any Other 34.00Coalition26.00
Green 16.00Labor1.01
Shortland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Solomon (NT) Australia First 151.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 2.40Green41.00
HEMP Party 151.00Independent(MarkGarner)101.00
Labor 1.55LibDem151.00
Rise Up Australia 151.00Shooters151.00
Stirling (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.17
Green 51.00Labor4.50
Sturt (SA) Coalition 1.15Green51.00
Labor 11.00NickXenophonTeam5.00
Swan (WA) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.87
Green 51.00Labor1.87
Sydney (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianSexParty101.00
Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition34.00
Green 8.00Labor1.05
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Socialist Alliance 151.00SustainableAustralia151.00
Tangney (WA) Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Independent (Dennis Jensen) 16.00Labor34.00
Wakefield (SA) Any Other 34.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.10
Nick Xenophon Team $6.00
Wannon (VIC) Any Other 16.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor34.00
Warringah (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.02Green51.00
Independent (David Barrow) 151.00Independent(JamesMathison)9.00
Independent (Tony Backhouse) 151.00Labor21.00
Nick Xenophon Team 11.00ScienceParty151.00
Watson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.01
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Wentworth (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.01Green51.00
Independent (Allen David) 151.00Independent(MarcAussie1001.00
Labor 21.00ScienceParty151.00
Werriwa (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition6.00
Green 51.00Labor1.10
Whitlam (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition34.00
Green 16.00Labor1.01
Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Wide Bay (QLD) Any Other 16.00Coalition1.01
Green 34.00Labor12.00
Wills (VIC) Any Other 51.00Coalition34.00
Green 6.00Labor1.10
Wright (QLD) Any Other 34.00Coalition1.01
Green 51.00Labor16.00

Full list of seats where the odds have changed on yesterday
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Sun 19 June Sat 18 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Mayo (SA) 1 15 -14 1.74 47.39 1.74 0.0 0.0 1.74 47.39
Hasluck (WA) 1 6 -5 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.0 0.0 47.81 0.00
Macarthur (NSW) 8 10 -2 0.00 38.60 1.70 0.0 0.0 54.27 5.43
Brisbane (QLD) 10 3 7 2.91 59.05 2.61 0.0 0.0 35.43 0.00
Adelaide (SA) 21 63 -42 2.45 24.99 1.62 0.0 0.0 63.44 7.50
Hindmarsh (SA) 22 16 6 2.43 63.46 1.62 0.0 0.0 25.00 7.50
Dunkley (VIC) 25 8 17 2.18 68.91 1.76 0.0 0.0 27.15 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 27 18 9 5.69 69.46 1.70 0.0 0.0 23.15 0.00
Boothby (SA) 33 39 -6 2.43 70.10 1.62 0.0 0.0 5.17 20.68
Greenway (NSW) 40 47 -7 3.10 21.27 1.67 0.0 0.0 73.97 0.00
Herbert (QLD) 47 30 17 6.72 74.47 1.68 0.0 0.0 17.13 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 48 42 6 2.78 76.80 1.66 0.0 0.0 18.77 0.00

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