| House | Coalition Odds ($) | Labor Odds ($) | Coalition Win Probability (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-10 | Betfair | 1.27 | 4.04 | 76.08 |
| 2016-06-10 | CrownBet | 1.29 | 3.60 | 73.62 |
| 2016-06-10 | Ladbrokes | 1.25 | 3.75 | 75.00 |
| 2016-06-10 | Luxbet | 1.22 | 4.25 | 77.70 |
| 2016-06-10 | Sportsbet | 1.28 | 3.70 | 74.30 |
| 2016-06-10 | TABtouch | 1.25 | 3.65 | 74.49 |
| 2016-06-10 | William Hill | 1.25 | 3.80 | 75.25 |
Over the past week, the average Coalition win probability has trended upwards.
| % | Fr 3-Jun | Sa 4-Jun | Su 5-Jun | Mo 6-Jun | Tu 7-Jun | We 8-Jun | Th 9-Jun | Fr 10-Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 74.76 | 72.95 | 73.76 | 72.95 | 74.11 | 74.76 | 75.48 | 76.08 |
| CrownBet | 72.63 | 72.63 | 73.62 | 73.62 | 73.62 | 73.62 | 73.62 | 73.62 |
| Ladbrokes | 71.11 | 73.38 | 73.38 | 75.00 | 75.00 | 75.00 | 75.00 | 75.00 |
| Luxbet | 76.34 | 76.34 | 74.45 | 74.45 | 74.45 | 74.45 | 77.70 | 77.70 |
| Sportsbet | 73.20 | 74.30 | 74.30 | 74.30 | 74.30 | 74.30 | 74.30 | 74.30 |
| TABtouch | 74.49 | 74.49 | 74.49 | 71.43 | 71.43 | - | 73.80 | 74.49 |
| William Hill | 75.25 | 75.25 | 75.25 | 72.34 | 72.34 | 74.60 | 74.60 | 75.25 |
| Average | 73.97 | 74.19 | 74.18 | 73.44 | 73.61 | 74.46 | 74.93 | 75.21 |
This can be seen in the following charts.
Turning to the Sportsbet individual seats market, two of the 150 seats did not have odds this morning: Brisbane (QLD) and Lingiari (NT). Brisbane has been close, with the Coalition just in front. Lingiari has been leaning to Labor.
For the remaining 148 seats, This morning's data is as follows:
A list of seats with equal favourites
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 2.43 | 44.22 | 1.62 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.22 | 7.52 | Coalition, Labor |
| Swan (WA) | 2.63 | 47.81 | 1.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.81 | 0.00 | Coalition, Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 48.23 | 1.77 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.23 | 0.00 | Coalition, Labor |
Complete list of Seat Odds (in dollars)
| $ | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team | PUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||||
| Adelaide (SA) | 34.0 | 4.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.33 | - | - | 9.0 | - |
| Aston (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.05 | 51.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 34.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Banks (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.35 | 51.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Barker (SA) | 34.0 | 1.05 | 51.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 7.0 | - |
| Barton (NSW) | 26.0 | 8.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Bass (TAS) | 34.0 | 1.25 | 51.00 | - | - | 3.75 | - | - | - | - |
| Batman (VIC) | 34.0 | 26.00 | 1.50 | - | - | 2.45 | - | - | - | - |
| Bendigo (VIC) | 34.0 | 6.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - | - |
| Bennelong (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Berowra (NSW) | 26.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Blair (QLD) | 34.0 | 8.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Blaxland (NSW) | 26.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - | - |
| Boothby (SA) | 34.0 | 1.15 | 51.00 | - | - | 11.00 | - | - | 5.0 | - |
| Bowman (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.10 | 51.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | 34.0 | 1.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Bradfield (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Brand (WA) | 34.0 | 8.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Bruce (VIC) | 34.0 | 4.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.22 | - | - | - | - |
| Burt (WA) | 34.0 | 2.50 | - | - | - | 1.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Calare (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 16.0 | - |
| Calwell (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Canberra (ACT) | 34.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Canning (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Capricornia (QLD) | 34.0 | 3.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.28 | - | - | - | - |
| Casey (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.05 | 51.00 | - | - | 8.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Chifley (NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Chisholm (VIC) | 34.0 | 4.20 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.20 | - | - | - | - |
| Cook (NSW) | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Corio (VIC) | 16.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.02 | - | - | - | - |
| Cowan (WA) | 34.0 | 3.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - | - |
| Cowper (NSW) | 11.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Cunningham (NSW) | 21.0 | 26.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Curtin (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Dawson (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.10 | 51.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.50 | 34.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Denison (TAS) | 34.0 | 21.00 | 51.00 | 1.01 | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Dickson (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.10 | 51.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | 34.0 | 3.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 41.0 | 1.58 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - | - |
| Durack (WA) | 16.0 | - | 51.00 | - | - | 34.00 | 1.08 | 7.0 | - | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 51.0 | 1.87 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.87 | - | - | - | - |
| Fadden (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Fairfax (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Farrer (NSW) | 21.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Fenner (ACT) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Fisher (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Flinders (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Flynn (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.20 | 51.00 | - | - | 4.20 | - | - | - | - |
| Forde (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Forrest (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Fowler (NSW) | 34.0 | 21.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Franklin (TAS) | 34.0 | 7.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.07 | - | - | - | - |
| Fremantle (WA) | 34.0 | 21.00 | 5.50 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - | - |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | 34.0 | 26.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.45 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Gippsland (VIC) | 16.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 34.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Goldstein (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Gorton (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Grayndler (NSW) | 34.0 | 21.00 | 3.35 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - | - |
| Greenway (NSW) | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - | - |
| Grey (SA) | 34.0 | 1.04 | 51.00 | - | - | 9.00 | - | - | 12.0 | - |
| Griffith (QLD) | 34.0 | 7.50 | 34.00 | - | - | 1.07 | - | - | - | - |
| Groom (QLD) | 16.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 21.0 | - |
| Hasluck (WA) | 34.0 | 2.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.70 | - | - | - | - |
| Herbert (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.20 | 51.00 | - | - | 3.75 | - | - | - | 51.0 |
| Higgins (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.10 | 6.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 51.0 | - |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 34.0 | 1.87 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.87 | - | - | 11.0 | - |
| Hinkler (QLD) | 15.0 | 1.08 | 51.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Holt (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Hotham (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Hughes (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Hume (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 15.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Hunter(NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Indi (VIC) | 34.0 | - | 51.00 | 1.15 | - | 34.00 | 11.00 | 6.0 | - | - |
| Isaacs (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Kennedy (QLD) | 34.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | 34.0 | 8.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Kingston (SA) | 34.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.15 | - | - | 5.0 | - |
| Kooyong (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 34.0 | 1.60 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - | - |
| Lalor (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.20 | 51.00 | - | - | 4.20 | - | - | - | - |
| Lilley (QLD) | 34.0 | 8.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.35 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.60 | - | - | 21.0 | - |
| Longman (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.20 | 51.00 | - | - | 4.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Lyne (NSW) | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Lyons (TAS) | 34.0 | 1.55 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.35 | - | - | - | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 34.0 | 2.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | 16.0 | - |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | 1.01 | 51.00 | 12.00 | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - | - |
| Makin (SA) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.08 | - | - | 7.0 | - |
| Mallee (VIC) | 16.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Maranoa (QLD) | 12.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Mayo (SA) | 34.0 | 1.27 | 31.00 | - | - | 51.00 | - | - | 3.5 | - |
| McEwen (VIC) | 34.0 | 5.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - | - |
| McMahon (NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| McMillan (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| McPherson (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 26.0 | 34.00 | 1.05 | - | - | 9.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | 34.0 | 7.50 | 7.50 | - | - | 1.15 | - | - | - | - |
| Menzies (VIC) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | 11.00 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Mitchell (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Moore (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Moreton (QLD) | 34.0 | 12.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | 16.0 | - |
| Murray (VIC) | 34.0 | - | 51.00 | - | - | 26.00 | 2.00 | 1.7 | - | - |
| New England (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.30 | 51.00 | 3.30 | - | 34.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Newcastle (NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.04 | - | - | - | - |
| North Sydney (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| O'Connor (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Oxley (QLD) | 34.0 | 8.50 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - | - |
| Page (NSW) | 34.0 | 2.15 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.65 | - | - | - | - |
| Parkes (NSW) | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Parramatta (NSW) | 34.0 | 6.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - | - |
| Paterson (NSW) | 17.0 | 3.75 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.25 | - | - | - | - |
| Pearce (WA) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Perth (WA) | 51.0 | 8.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.03 | - | - | - | - |
| Petrie (QLD) | 26.0 | 3.75 | 41.00 | - | - | 1.25 | - | - | - | - |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | 34.0 | 26.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | 12.0 | - |
| Rankin (QLD) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Reid (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.55 | 51.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - | - |
| Richmond (NSW) | 34.0 | 4.50 | 7.50 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - | - |
| Riverina (NSW) | 21.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.57 | 34.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - | - |
| Ryan (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Scullin (VIC) | 34.0 | 26.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Shortland (NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Solomon (NT) | 26.0 | 2.40 | 41.00 | 51.00 | - | 1.55 | - | - | - | - |
| Stirling (WA) | 34.0 | 1.35 | 51.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Sturt (SA) | - | 1.15 | 51.00 | - | - | 11.00 | - | - | 5.0 | - |
| Swan (WA) | 34.0 | 1.87 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.87 | - | - | - | - |
| Sydney (NSW) | 26.0 | 21.00 | 6.00 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - | - |
| Tangney (WA) | - | 1.01 | 51.00 | 16.00 | - | 34.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Wakefield (SA) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | 6.0 | - |
| Wannon (VIC) | 16.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 34.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Warringah (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.06 | 51.00 | 7.50 | - | 21.00 | - | - | 11.0 | - |
| Watson (NSW) | 34.0 | 16.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Wentworth (NSW) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 34.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Werriwa (NSW) | 26.0 | 6.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - | - |
| Whitlam (NSW) | 31.0 | 34.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | 16.0 | 1.10 | 34.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Wills (VIC) | 51.0 | 34.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 1.20 | - | - | - | - |
| Wright (QLD) | 34.0 | 1.01 | 51.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
Complete list of Seat Probabilities (in per cent)
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Wills (VIC) | 1.73 | 2.60 | 22.08 | - | - | 73.59 | - | Labor |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 3.40 | 2.60 | 84.18 | - | - | 9.82 | - | Green |
| Whitlam (NSW) | 2.89 | 2.64 | 5.61 | - | - | 88.86 | - | Labor |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | 2.53 | 3.31 | 1.69 | - | - | 85.29 | 7.18 | Labor |
| Batman (VIC) | 2.57 | 3.37 | 58.34 | - | - | 35.72 | - | Green |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | 2.62 | 3.43 | 5.58 | - | - | 88.36 | - | Labor |
| Scullin (VIC) | 2.62 | 3.43 | 5.58 | - | - | 88.36 | - | Labor |
| Cunningham (NSW) | 4.35 | 3.51 | 1.79 | - | - | 90.36 | - | Labor |
| Denison (TAS) | 2.51 | 4.07 | 1.68 | 84.62 | - | 7.12 | - | Independent |
| Fremantle (WA) | 2.55 | 4.13 | 15.79 | - | - | 77.52 | - | Labor |
| Sydney (NSW) | 3.36 | 4.16 | 14.55 | - | - | 77.94 | - | Labor |
| Grayndler (NSW) | 2.57 | 4.16 | 26.08 | - | - | 67.20 | - | Labor |
| Fowler (NSW) | 2.71 | 4.38 | 1.80 | - | - | 91.11 | - | Labor |
| Wakefield (SA) | 2.48 | 5.26 | 1.65 | - | - | 76.57 | 14.04 | Labor |
| Makin (SA) | 2.49 | 5.30 | 1.66 | - | - | 78.45 | 12.10 | Labor |
| Corio (VIC) | 5.56 | 5.56 | 1.74 | - | - | 87.15 | - | Labor |
| Shortland (NSW) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Chifley (NSW) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Calwell (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Hotham (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Holt (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Watson (NSW) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Lalor (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Gorton (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Rankin (QLD) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Isaacs (VIC) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| McMahon (NSW) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Fenner (ACT) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Hunter(NSW) | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.78 | - | - | 89.88 | - | Labor |
| Newcastle (NSW) | 2.74 | 5.82 | 1.83 | - | - | 89.61 | - | Labor |
| Kingston (SA) | 2.45 | 6.93 | 1.63 | - | - | 72.35 | 16.64 | Labor |
| Moreton (QLD) | 2.48 | 7.03 | 1.65 | - | - | 83.56 | 5.27 | Labor |
| Kennedy (QLD) | 2.53 | 7.18 | 1.69 | - | 85.29 | 3.31 | - | KAP (Bob Katter) |
| Blaxland (NSW) | 3.40 | 7.36 | 1.73 | - | - | 87.50 | - | Labor |
| Canberra (ACT) | 2.62 | 7.42 | 1.75 | - | - | 88.21 | - | Labor |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 2.62 | 7.42 | 1.75 | - | - | 88.21 | - | Labor |
| Barton (NSW) | 3.35 | 10.26 | 3.35 | - | - | 83.04 | - | Labor |
| Lilley (QLD) | 2.63 | 10.51 | 1.75 | - | - | 85.11 | - | Labor |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | 2.63 | 10.51 | 1.75 | - | - | 85.11 | - | Labor |
| Oxley (QLD) | 2.63 | 10.51 | 1.75 | - | - | 85.11 | - | Labor |
| Brand (WA) | 2.63 | 10.51 | 1.75 | - | - | 85.11 | - | Labor |
| Blair (QLD) | 2.63 | 10.51 | 1.75 | - | - | 85.11 | - | Labor |
| Perth (WA) | 1.70 | 10.83 | 3.33 | - | - | 84.14 | - | Labor |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | 2.52 | 11.44 | 11.44 | - | - | 74.60 | - | Labor |
| Griffith (QLD) | 2.61 | 11.83 | 2.61 | - | - | 82.95 | - | Labor |
| Franklin (TAS) | 2.55 | 12.37 | 4.12 | - | - | 80.95 | - | Labor |
| Werriwa (NSW) | 3.39 | 14.70 | 1.73 | - | - | 80.18 | - | Labor |
| Parramatta (NSW) | 2.61 | 14.82 | 1.74 | - | - | 80.82 | - | Labor |
| Bendigo (VIC) | 2.61 | 14.82 | 1.74 | - | - | 80.82 | - | Labor |
| McEwen (VIC) | 2.62 | 16.18 | 1.74 | - | - | 79.46 | - | Labor |
| Greenway (NSW) | 3.29 | 17.10 | 3.29 | - | - | 76.33 | - | Labor |
| Richmond (NSW) | 2.55 | 19.25 | 11.55 | - | - | 66.65 | - | Labor |
| Chisholm (VIC) | 2.62 | 21.25 | 1.75 | - | - | 74.38 | - | Labor |
| Indi (VIC) | 2.44 | 21.37 | 1.63 | 72.13 | - | 2.44 | - | Independent |
| Adelaide (SA) | 2.53 | 21.51 | 1.69 | - | - | 64.71 | 9.56 | Labor |
| Bruce (VIC) | 2.63 | 22.35 | 1.75 | - | - | 73.27 | - | Labor |
| Paterson (NSW) | 5.05 | 22.91 | 3.30 | - | - | 68.73 | - | Labor |
| Petrie (QLD) | 3.41 | 23.61 | 2.16 | - | - | 70.83 | - | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | 2.64 | 25.60 | 1.76 | - | - | 70.01 | - | Labor |
| Cowan (WA) | 2.62 | 29.68 | 1.75 | - | - | 65.96 | - | Labor |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.62 | 29.68 | 1.75 | - | - | 65.96 | - | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.36 | 36.41 | 2.13 | 1.71 | - | 56.38 | - | Labor |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 36.49 | - | - | - | 60.82 | - | Labor |
| Page (NSW) | 2.63 | 41.52 | 1.75 | - | - | 54.10 | - | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 2.49 | 42.27 | 1.66 | - | - | 48.31 | 5.28 | Labor |
| Hasluck (WA) | 2.59 | 43.97 | 1.72 | - | - | 51.72 | - | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 2.43 | 44.22 | 1.62 | - | - | 44.22 | 7.52 | Coalition, Labor |
| Swan (WA) | 2.63 | 47.81 | 1.75 | - | - | 47.81 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 48.23 | 1.77 | - | - | 48.23 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.58 | 55.86 | 2.58 | - | - | 38.98 | - | Coalition |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 2.63 | 55.88 | 1.75 | - | - | 39.74 | - | Coalition |
| Reid (NSW) | 2.58 | 56.66 | 1.72 | - | - | 39.03 | - | Coalition |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.19 | 56.93 | 1.76 | - | - | 39.11 | - | Coalition |
| Lyons (TAS) | 2.63 | 57.62 | 1.75 | - | - | 38.00 | - | Coalition |
| Bonner (QLD) | 2.56 | 57.95 | 1.70 | - | - | 37.79 | - | Coalition |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - | Coalition |
| Deakin (VIC) | 2.61 | 59.23 | 2.61 | - | - | 35.54 | - | Coalition |
| Braddon (TAS) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
| Forde (QLD) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 2.58 | 60.57 | 1.72 | - | - | 35.13 | - | Coalition |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 2.41 | 60.62 | 1.60 | - | - | 31.47 | 3.90 | Coalition |
| Banks (NSW) | 2.62 | 65.96 | 1.75 | - | - | 29.68 | - | Coalition |
| Stirling (WA) | 2.62 | 65.96 | 1.75 | - | - | 29.68 | - | Coalition |
| New England (NSW) | 2.56 | 66.85 | 1.70 | 26.33 | - | 2.56 | - | Coalition |
| Mayo (SA) | 2.55 | 68.21 | 2.79 | - | - | 1.70 | 24.75 | Coalition |
| Herbert (QLD) | 4.19 | 71.31 | 1.68 | - | - | 22.82 | - | Coalition |
| Bass (TAS) | 2.64 | 71.70 | 1.76 | - | - | 23.90 | - | Coalition |
| Boothby (SA) | 2.43 | 71.89 | 1.62 | - | - | 7.52 | 16.54 | Coalition |
| Longman (QLD) | 2.60 | 73.59 | 1.73 | - | - | 22.08 | - | Coalition |
| Sturt (SA) | - | 73.69 | 1.66 | - | - | 7.70 | 16.95 | Coalition |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 2.62 | 74.38 | 1.75 | - | - | 21.25 | - | Coalition |
| Flynn (QLD) | 2.62 | 74.38 | 1.75 | - | - | 21.25 | - | Coalition |
| Warringah (NSW) | 2.33 | 74.62 | 1.55 | 10.55 | - | 3.77 | 7.19 | Coalition |
| Higgins (VIC) | 2.51 | 77.54 | 14.22 | - | - | 4.06 | 1.67 | Coalition |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | 5.35 | 77.86 | 2.52 | - | - | 14.27 | - | Coalition |
| Hinkler (QLD) | 5.66 | 78.54 | 1.66 | - | - | 14.14 | - | Coalition |
| Grey (SA) | 2.44 | 79.80 | 1.63 | - | - | 9.22 | 6.92 | Coalition |
| Barker (SA) | 2.49 | 80.52 | 1.66 | - | - | 3.25 | 12.08 | Coalition |
| Dickson (QLD) | 2.61 | 80.82 | 1.74 | - | - | 14.82 | - | Coalition |
| Bowman (QLD) | 2.61 | 80.82 | 1.74 | - | - | 14.82 | - | Coalition |
| Dawson (QLD) | 2.61 | 80.82 | 1.74 | - | - | 14.82 | - | Coalition |
| Aston (VIC) | 2.52 | 81.53 | 1.68 | - | - | 14.27 | - | Coalition |
| Cowper (NSW) | 7.69 | 83.77 | 3.25 | - | - | 5.29 | - | Coalition |
| Cook (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - | Coalition |
| Menzies (VIC) | 2.52 | 84.73 | 1.68 | 7.78 | - | 3.29 | - | Coalition |
| Casey (VIC) | 2.63 | 85.11 | 1.75 | - | - | 10.51 | - | Coalition |
| Groom (QLD) | 5.40 | 85.48 | 1.69 | - | - | 3.32 | 4.11 | Coalition |
| Lyne (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - | Coalition |
| Parkes (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - | Coalition |
| Calare (NSW) | 2.56 | 86.15 | 1.71 | - | - | 4.14 | 5.44 | Coalition |
| Maranoa (QLD) | 7.31 | 86.80 | 1.72 | - | - | 4.17 | - | Coalition |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | 86.80 | 1.72 | 7.31 | - | 4.17 | - | Coalition |
| Berowra (NSW) | 3.40 | 87.50 | 1.73 | - | - | 7.36 | - | Coalition |
| Pearce (WA) | 2.62 | 88.21 | 1.75 | - | - | 7.42 | - | Coalition |
| Bradfield (NSW) | 2.62 | 88.21 | 1.75 | - | - | 7.42 | - | Coalition |
| Fisher (QLD) | 2.62 | 88.21 | 1.75 | - | - | 7.42 | - | Coalition |
| Bennelong (NSW) | 2.62 | 88.21 | 1.75 | - | - | 7.42 | - | Coalition |
| Mallee (VIC) | 5.58 | 88.42 | 1.75 | - | - | 4.25 | - | Coalition |
| Hume (NSW) | 2.66 | 89.54 | 1.77 | - | - | 6.03 | - | Coalition |
| Farrer (NSW) | 4.31 | 89.61 | 1.77 | - | - | 4.31 | - | Coalition |
| Riverina (NSW) | 4.31 | 89.61 | 1.77 | - | - | 4.31 | - | Coalition |
| North Sydney (NSW) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Mitchell (NSW) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Ryan (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Moore (WA) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Goldstein (VIC) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Hughes (NSW) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Fairfax (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Wannon (VIC) | 5.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 2.67 | - | Coalition |
| Wright (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Fadden (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Gippsland (VIC) | 5.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 2.67 | - | Coalition |
| Flinders (VIC) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Canning (WA) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Forrest (WA) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Tangney (WA) | - | 89.88 | 1.78 | 5.67 | - | 2.67 | - | Coalition |
| Curtin (WA) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Kooyong (VIC) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| McMillan (VIC) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| McPherson (QLD) | 2.67 | 89.88 | 1.78 | - | - | 5.67 | - | Coalition |
| Wentworth (NSW) | 2.68 | 90.29 | 4.34 | - | - | 2.68 | - | Coalition |
| Durack (WA) | 5.30 | 90.55 | 1.66 | - | - | 2.49 | - | Coalition |
| O'Connor (WA) | 2.71 | 91.11 | 1.80 | - | - | 4.38 | - | Coalition |
| Murray (VIC) | 2.50 | 92.56 | 1.67 | - | - | 3.27 | - | Coalition |
Seats with competing odds on Coalition members
| Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team | Any Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Murray (VIC) | 1.67 | - | - | 3.27 | 42.53 | 50.03 | - | 2.50 |
| Indi (VIC) | 1.63 | 72.13 | - | 2.44 | 7.54 | 13.82 | - | 2.44 |
| Durack (WA) | 1.66 | - | - | 2.49 | 78.45 | 12.10 | - | 5.30 |
Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.
| TPP 2013 | TCP 2013 | 2013 Outcome | 2016 Favourite | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | ||||
| Batman (VIC) | ALP 21.0% | ALP 10.6% v GRN | Labor | Green |
| Brisbane (QLD) | LNP 4.3% | - | Coalition | - |
| Burt (WA) | LIB 6.1% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 0.8% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Cowan (WA) | LIB 4.5% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | LIB 2.9% | - | Coalition | Coalition, Labor |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | PUP 0.03% v LNP | Palmer United | Coalition |
| Hasluck (WA) | LIB 6.0% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | LIB 1.9% | - | Coalition | Coalition, Labor |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | - | Labor | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | LIB 3.3% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Page (NSW) | NAT 3.1% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Petrie (QLD) | LNP 0.5% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | CLP 1.4% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | LIB 7.3% | - | Coalition | Coalition, Labor |
Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Batman (VIC) | 2.57 | 3.37 | 58.34 | - | - | 35.72 | - | Green |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.36 | 36.41 | 2.13 | 1.71 | - | 56.38 | - | Labor |
| Page (NSW) | 2.63 | 41.52 | 1.75 | - | - | 54.10 | - | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 2.49 | 42.27 | 1.66 | - | - | 48.31 | 5.28 | Labor |
| Hasluck (WA) | 2.59 | 43.97 | 1.72 | - | - | 51.72 | - | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 2.43 | 44.22 | 1.62 | - | - | 44.22 | 7.52 | Coalition, Labor |
| Swan (WA) | 2.63 | 47.81 | 1.75 | - | - | 47.81 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 48.23 | 1.77 | - | - | 48.23 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.58 | 55.86 | 2.58 | - | - | 38.98 | - | Coalition |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 2.63 | 55.88 | 1.75 | - | - | 39.74 | - | Coalition |
| Reid (NSW) | 2.58 | 56.66 | 1.72 | - | - | 39.03 | - | Coalition |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.19 | 56.93 | 1.76 | - | - | 39.11 | - | Coalition |
| Lyons (TAS) | 2.63 | 57.62 | 1.75 | - | - | 38.00 | - | Coalition |
| Bonner (QLD) | 2.56 | 57.95 | 1.70 | - | - | 37.79 | - | Coalition |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - | Coalition |
| Deakin (VIC) | 2.61 | 59.23 | 2.61 | - | - | 35.54 | - | Coalition |
| Braddon (TAS) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
| Forde (QLD) | 2.64 | 59.75 | 1.76 | - | - | 35.85 | - | Coalition |
Turning now to the trend data over time (in terms of seat favourites). In this data, where odds where not available on a day, I use the odds from the previous day.
Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category
| Coalition | Labor | Coalition, Labor | Green | Independent | Katter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-12 | 78 | 68 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-13 | 78 | 68 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-14 | 78 | 68 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-15 | 78 | 68 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-16 | 78 | 68 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-17 | 79 | 67 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-18 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-19 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-20 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-21 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-22 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-23 | 80 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-24 | 80 | 64 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-25 | 80 | 64 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-26 | 80 | 63 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-27 | 80 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-28 | 80 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-29 | 80 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-30 | 80 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-05-31 | 80 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-01 | 80 | 63 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-02 | 79 | 64 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-03 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-04 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-05 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-06 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-07 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-08 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-09 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016-06-10 | 78 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Tally of seats by Party and Date, allocating equal favourites proportionately to parties
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | Katter | Labor | Xenophon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 |
| May 13 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 |
| May 14 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 |
| May 15 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 |
| May 16 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 |
| May 17 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 |
| May 18 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 19 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 20 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 21 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 22 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 23 | 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| May 24 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
| May 25 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
| May 26 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 |
| May 27 | 0.0 | 81.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.5 | 0.0 |
| May 28 | 0.0 | 81.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.5 | 0.0 |
| May 29 | 0.0 | 81.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.5 | 0.0 |
| May 30 | 0.0 | 81.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.5 | 0.0 |
| May 31 | 0.0 | 81.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 63.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 01 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 |
| Jun 02 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
| Jun 03 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 04 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 05 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 06 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 07 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 08 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 09 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 10 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
The previous two tables translate to the next two charts.
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