Friday, June 10, 2016

Betting Market Update

We begin this week's update with the odds for a Coalition win on 2 July 2016.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-06-10 Betfair 1.27 4.04 76.08
2016-06-10 CrownBet 1.29 3.60 73.62
2016-06-10 Ladbrokes 1.25 3.75 75.00
2016-06-10 Luxbet 1.22 4.25 77.70
2016-06-10 Sportsbet 1.28 3.70 74.30
2016-06-10 TABtouch 1.25 3.65 74.49
2016-06-10 William Hill 1.25 3.80 75.25

Over the past week, the average Coalition win probability has trended upwards.

% Fr 3-Jun Sa 4-Jun Su 5-Jun Mo 6-Jun Tu 7-Jun We 8-Jun Th 9-Jun Fr 10-Jun
Betfair 74.76 72.95 73.76 72.95 74.11 74.76 75.48 76.08
CrownBet 72.63 72.63 73.62 73.62 73.62 73.62 73.62 73.62
Ladbrokes 71.11 73.38 73.38 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
Luxbet 76.34 76.34 74.45 74.45 74.45 74.45 77.70 77.70
Sportsbet 73.20 74.30 74.30 74.30 74.30 74.30 74.30 74.30
TABtouch 74.49 74.49 74.49 71.43 71.43 - 73.80 74.49
William Hill 75.25 75.25 75.25 72.34 72.34 74.60 74.60 75.25
Average 73.97 74.19 74.18 73.44 73.61 74.46 74.93 75.21

This can be seen in the following charts.





Turning to the Sportsbet individual seats market, two of the 150 seats did not have odds this morning: Brisbane (QLD) and Lingiari (NT). Brisbane has been close, with the Coalition just in front. Lingiari has been leaning to Labor.



For the remaining 148 seats, This morning's data is as follows:

A list of seats with equal favourites
% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Hindmarsh (SA) 2.43 44.22 1.62 0.0 0.0 44.22 7.52 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.0 0.0 47.81 0.00 Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 0.0 0.0 48.23 0.00 Coalition, Labor

Complete list of Seat Odds (in dollars)
$ Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team PUP
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) 34.0 4.00 51.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0 -
Aston (VIC) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Ballarat (VIC) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Banks (NSW) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Barker (SA) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0 -
Barton (NSW) 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Bass (TAS) 34.0 1.25 51.00 - - 3.75 - - - -
Batman (VIC) 34.0 26.00 1.50 - - 2.45 - - - -
Bendigo (VIC) 34.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Bennelong (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Berowra (NSW) 26.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Blair (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Blaxland (NSW) 26.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Bonner (QLD) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.30 - - - -
Boothby (SA) 34.0 1.15 51.00 - - 11.00 - - 5.0 -
Bowman (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Braddon (TAS) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Bradfield (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Brand (WA) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Bruce (VIC) 34.0 4.00 51.00 - - 1.22 - - - -
Burt (WA) 34.0 2.50 - - - 1.50 - - - -
Calare (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0 -
Calwell (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canberra (ACT) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canning (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Capricornia (QLD) 34.0 3.50 51.00 - - 1.28 - - - -
Casey (VIC) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 8.50 - - - -
Chifley (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Chisholm (VIC) 34.0 4.20 51.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Cook (NSW) 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Corangamite (VIC) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Corio (VIC) 16.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.02 - - - -
Cowan (WA) 34.0 3.00 51.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Cowper (NSW) 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Cunningham (NSW) 21.0 26.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Curtin (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Dawson (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Deakin (VIC) 34.0 1.50 34.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Denison (TAS) 34.0 21.00 51.00 1.01 - 12.00 - - - -
Dickson (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Dobell (NSW) 34.0 3.00 51.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Dunkley (VIC) 41.0 1.58 51.00 - - 2.30 - - - -
Durack (WA) 16.0 - 51.00 - - 34.00 1.08 7.0 - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) 51.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Fadden (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fairfax (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Farrer (NSW) 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Fenner (ACT) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Fisher (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Flinders (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Flynn (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Forde (QLD) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Forrest (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fowler (NSW) 34.0 21.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Franklin (TAS) 34.0 7.00 21.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Fremantle (WA) 34.0 21.00 5.50 - - 1.12 - - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) 34.0 26.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Gilmore (NSW) 34.0 1.45 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Gippsland (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Goldstein (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Gorton (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Grayndler (NSW) 34.0 21.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - - -
Greenway (NSW) 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Grey (SA) 34.0 1.04 51.00 - - 9.00 - - 12.0 -
Griffith (QLD) 34.0 7.50 34.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Groom (QLD) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0 -
Hasluck (WA) 34.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.70 - - - -
Herbert (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 3.75 - - - 51.0
Higgins (VIC) 34.0 1.10 6.00 - - 21.00 - - 51.0 -
Hindmarsh (SA) 34.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - 11.0 -
Hinkler (QLD) 15.0 1.08 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Holt (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hotham (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hughes (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Hume (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 15.00 - - - -
Hunter(NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Indi (VIC) 34.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 34.00 11.00 6.0 - -
Isaacs (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Kennedy (QLD) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - 1.01 26.00 - - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Kingston (SA) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.15 - - 5.0 -
Kooyong (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
La Trobe (Vic) 34.0 1.60 51.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Lalor (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Lilley (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Lindsay (NSW) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 2.60 - - 21.0 -
Longman (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.00 - - - -
Lyne (NSW) 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Lyons (TAS) 34.0 1.55 51.00 - - 2.35 - - - -
Macarthur (NSW) 34.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0 -
Mackellar (NSW) - 1.01 51.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - - -
Macquarie (NSW) 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Makin (SA) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0 -
Mallee (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maranoa (QLD) 12.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Mayo (SA) 34.0 1.27 31.00 - - 51.00 - - 3.5 -
McEwen (VIC) 34.0 5.50 51.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
McMahon (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
McMillan (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
McPherson (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Melbourne (VIC) 26.0 34.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 34.0 7.50 7.50 - - 1.15 - - - -
Menzies (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Mitchell (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moore (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moreton (QLD) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - 16.0 -
Murray (VIC) 34.0 - 51.00 - - 26.00 2.00 1.7 - -
New England (NSW) 34.0 1.30 51.00 3.30 - 34.00 - - - -
Newcastle (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.04 - - - -
North Sydney (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
O'Connor (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Oxley (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Page (NSW) 34.0 2.15 51.00 - - 1.65 - - - -
Parkes (NSW) 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Parramatta (NSW) 34.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Paterson (NSW) 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Pearce (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Perth (WA) 51.0 8.00 26.00 - - 1.03 - - - -
Petrie (QLD) 26.0 3.75 41.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) 34.0 26.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - 12.0 -
Rankin (QLD) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Reid (NSW) 34.0 1.55 51.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Richmond (NSW) 34.0 4.50 7.50 - - 1.30 - - - -
Riverina (NSW) 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Robertson (NSW) 34.0 1.57 34.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Ryan (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Scullin (VIC) 34.0 26.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Shortland (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Solomon (NT) 26.0 2.40 41.00 51.00 - 1.55 - - - -
Stirling (WA) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Sturt (SA) - 1.15 51.00 - - 11.00 - - 5.0 -
Swan (WA) 34.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Sydney (NSW) 26.0 21.00 6.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Tangney (WA) - 1.01 51.00 16.00 - 34.00 - - - -
Wakefield (SA) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - 6.0 -
Wannon (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Warringah (NSW) 34.0 1.06 51.00 7.50 - 21.00 - - 11.0 -
Watson (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wentworth (NSW) 34.0 1.01 21.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Werriwa (NSW) 26.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Whitlam (NSW) 31.0 34.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) 16.0 1.10 34.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Wills (VIC) 51.0 34.00 4.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Wright (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -

Complete list of Seat Probabilities (in per cent)
% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Wills (VIC) 1.73 2.60 22.08 - - 73.59 - Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.40 2.60 84.18 - - 9.82 - Green
Whitlam (NSW) 2.89 2.64 5.61 - - 88.86 - Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 2.53 3.31 1.69 - - 85.29 7.18 Labor
Batman (VIC) 2.57 3.37 58.34 - - 35.72 - Green
Gelibrand (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 - - 88.36 - Labor
Scullin (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 - - 88.36 - Labor
Cunningham (NSW) 4.35 3.51 1.79 - - 90.36 - Labor
Denison (TAS) 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 - 7.12 - Independent
Fremantle (WA) 2.55 4.13 15.79 - - 77.52 - Labor
Sydney (NSW) 3.36 4.16 14.55 - - 77.94 - Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 2.57 4.16 26.08 - - 67.20 - Labor
Fowler (NSW) 2.71 4.38 1.80 - - 91.11 - Labor
Wakefield (SA) 2.48 5.26 1.65 - - 76.57 14.04 Labor
Makin (SA) 2.49 5.30 1.66 - - 78.45 12.10 Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.56 5.56 1.74 - - 87.15 - Labor
Shortland (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Chifley (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Jagajaga (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Calwell (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Hotham (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Holt (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Watson (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Lalor (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Gorton (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Rankin (QLD) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
McMahon (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Fenner (ACT) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Hunter(NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 2.74 5.82 1.83 - - 89.61 - Labor
Kingston (SA) 2.45 6.93 1.63 - - 72.35 16.64 Labor
Moreton (QLD) 2.48 7.03 1.65 - - 83.56 5.27 Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 2.53 7.18 1.69 - 85.29 3.31 - KAP (Bob Katter)
Blaxland (NSW) 3.40 7.36 1.73 - - 87.50 - Labor
Canberra (ACT) 2.62 7.42 1.75 - - 88.21 - Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 2.62 7.42 1.75 - - 88.21 - Labor
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - Labor
Lilley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Oxley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Brand (WA) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Blair (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Perth (WA) 1.70 10.83 3.33 - - 84.14 - Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 2.52 11.44 11.44 - - 74.60 - Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.61 11.83 2.61 - - 82.95 - Labor
Franklin (TAS) 2.55 12.37 4.12 - - 80.95 - Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 3.39 14.70 1.73 - - 80.18 - Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 2.61 14.82 1.74 - - 80.82 - Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 2.61 14.82 1.74 - - 80.82 - Labor
McEwen (VIC) 2.62 16.18 1.74 - - 79.46 - Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 - Labor
Richmond (NSW) 2.55 19.25 11.55 - - 66.65 - Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 2.62 21.25 1.75 - - 74.38 - Labor
Indi (VIC) 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 - 2.44 - Independent
Adelaide (SA) 2.53 21.51 1.69 - - 64.71 9.56 Labor
Bruce (VIC) 2.63 22.35 1.75 - - 73.27 - Labor
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 - Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.41 23.61 2.16 - - 70.83 - Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 2.64 25.60 1.76 - - 70.01 - Labor
Cowan (WA) 2.62 29.68 1.75 - - 65.96 - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.62 29.68 1.75 - - 65.96 - Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.36 36.41 2.13 1.71 - 56.38 - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 36.49 - - - 60.82 - Labor
Page (NSW) 2.63 41.52 1.75 - - 54.10 - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 2.49 42.27 1.66 - - 48.31 5.28 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 2.59 43.97 1.72 - - 51.72 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 2.43 44.22 1.62 - - 44.22 7.52 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 2.63 47.81 1.75 - - 47.81 - Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - Coalition, Labor
Robertson (NSW) 2.58 55.86 2.58 - - 38.98 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 2.63 55.88 1.75 - - 39.74 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 2.58 56.66 1.72 - - 39.03 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.19 56.93 1.76 - - 39.11 - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 2.63 57.62 1.75 - - 38.00 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.56 57.95 1.70 - - 37.79 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Deakin (VIC) 2.61 59.23 2.61 - - 35.54 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.58 60.57 1.72 - - 35.13 - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 2.41 60.62 1.60 - - 31.47 3.90 Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.62 65.96 1.75 - - 29.68 - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 2.62 65.96 1.75 - - 29.68 - Coalition
New England (NSW) 2.56 66.85 1.70 26.33 - 2.56 - Coalition
Mayo (SA) 2.55 68.21 2.79 - - 1.70 24.75 Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 4.19 71.31 1.68 - - 22.82 - Coalition
Bass (TAS) 2.64 71.70 1.76 - - 23.90 - Coalition
Boothby (SA) 2.43 71.89 1.62 - - 7.52 16.54 Coalition
Longman (QLD) 2.60 73.59 1.73 - - 22.08 - Coalition
Sturt (SA) - 73.69 1.66 - - 7.70 16.95 Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 - - 21.25 - Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 - - 21.25 - Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 2.33 74.62 1.55 10.55 - 3.77 7.19 Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 2.51 77.54 14.22 - - 4.06 1.67 Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.35 77.86 2.52 - - 14.27 - Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.66 78.54 1.66 - - 14.14 - Coalition
Grey (SA) 2.44 79.80 1.63 - - 9.22 6.92 Coalition
Barker (SA) 2.49 80.52 1.66 - - 3.25 12.08 Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Aston (VIC) 2.52 81.53 1.68 - - 14.27 - Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 - Coalition
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 - 3.29 - Coalition
Casey (VIC) 2.63 85.11 1.75 - - 10.51 - Coalition
Groom (QLD) 5.40 85.48 1.69 - - 3.32 4.11 Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Calare (NSW) 2.56 86.15 1.71 - - 4.14 5.44 Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.31 86.80 1.72 - - 4.17 - Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) - 86.80 1.72 7.31 - 4.17 - Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 3.40 87.50 1.73 - - 7.36 - Coalition
Pearce (WA) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 5.58 88.42 1.75 - - 4.25 - Coalition
Hume (NSW) 2.66 89.54 1.77 - - 6.03 - Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Moore (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 - - 2.67 - Coalition
Wright (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 - - 2.67 - Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Canning (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Forrest (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Tangney (WA) - 89.88 1.78 5.67 - 2.67 - Coalition
Curtin (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 2.68 90.29 4.34 - - 2.68 - Coalition
Durack (WA) 5.30 90.55 1.66 - - 2.49 - Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 2.71 91.11 1.80 - - 4.38 - Coalition
Murray (VIC) 2.50 92.56 1.67 - - 3.27 - Coalition

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members
Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team Any Other
Electorate
Murray (VIC) 1.67 - - 3.27 42.53 50.03 - 2.50
Indi (VIC) 1.63 72.13 - 2.44 7.54 13.82 - 2.44
Durack (WA) 1.66 - - 2.49 78.45 12.10 - 5.30

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.
TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Batman (VIC) ALP 21.0% ALP 10.6% v GRN Labor Green
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 4.3% - Coalition -
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Lingiari (NT) ALP 0.9% - Labor -
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Page (NSW) NAT 3.1% - Coalition Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).
Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Batman (VIC) 2.57 3.37 58.34 - - 35.72 - Green
Solomon (NT) 3.36 36.41 2.13 1.71 - 56.38 - Labor
Page (NSW) 2.63 41.52 1.75 - - 54.10 - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 2.49 42.27 1.66 - - 48.31 5.28 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 2.59 43.97 1.72 - - 51.72 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 2.43 44.22 1.62 - - 44.22 7.52 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 2.63 47.81 1.75 - - 47.81 - Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - Coalition, Labor
Robertson (NSW) 2.58 55.86 2.58 - - 38.98 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 2.63 55.88 1.75 - - 39.74 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 2.58 56.66 1.72 - - 39.03 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.19 56.93 1.76 - - 39.11 - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 2.63 57.62 1.75 - - 38.00 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.56 57.95 1.70 - - 37.79 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Deakin (VIC) 2.61 59.23 2.61 - - 35.54 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition

Turning now to the trend data over time (in terms of seat favourites). In this data, where odds where not available on a day, I use the odds from the previous day.

Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category
Coalition Labor Coalition, Labor Green Independent Katter
2016-05-12 78 68 - 1 2 1
2016-05-13 78 68 - 1 2 1
2016-05-14 78 68 - 1 2 1
2016-05-15 78 68 - 1 2 1
2016-05-16 78 68 - 1 2 1
2016-05-17 79 67 - 1 2 1
2016-05-18 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-19 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-20 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-21 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-22 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-23 80 65 1.0 1 2 1
2016-05-24 80 64 2.0 1 2 1
2016-05-25 80 64 2.0 1 2 1
2016-05-26 80 63 2.0 2 2 1
2016-05-27 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
2016-05-28 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
2016-05-29 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
2016-05-30 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
2016-05-31 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-01 80 63 2.0 2 2 1
2016-06-02 79 64 2.0 2 2 1
2016-06-03 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-04 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-05 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-06 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-07 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-08 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-09 78 64 3.0 2 2 1
2016-06-10 78 64 3.0 2 2 1

Tally of seats by Party and Date, allocating equal favourites proportionately to parties
Any Other Coalition Green Independent Katter Labor Xenophon
May 12 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 13 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 14 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 15 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 16 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 17 0.0 79.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 67.0 0.0
May 18 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 19 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 20 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 21 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 22 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 23 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 24 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 25 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 26 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
May 27 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 28 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 29 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 30 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 31 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
Jun 01 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
Jun 02 0.0 80.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
Jun 03 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 04 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 05 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 06 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 07 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 08 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 09 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 10 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0

The previous two tables translate to the next two charts.



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